70 Green Head Ln · Altheimer, AR 72004

$139,900

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,320 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Poor condition 1.05 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own a fully furnished camp. The property is right down the road from Long Pond access, on the southern end of Bayou Meto WMA. Saracen Casino is only approximately 20 miles away! This spacious 2,320 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom camp is ideal for hunting groups. The open-concept layout and recreational amenities make this a turn-key property you can enjoy from day one.

Key facts

• Fully furnished camp
• Long pond access
• Turn-key property

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED CAMP
• LONG POND ACCESS
• RECREATIONAL AMENITIES
• TURN-KEY PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-580/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#446 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dewitt School District (rural): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 238 in AR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Arkansas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Arkansas County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,114 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,872
• Equity at exit: $62,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $53,851
• Equity at exit: $96,944

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72004

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $132,907

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $0	+0% $-48	+5% $-97	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-101	+0% $-48	+5% $4	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-13	base $-48	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on marketlisting id $139,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $139,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 38 DOM
19. 2026-04-22
    listed $139,900 New Listing 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own a fully furnished camp. The property is right down the road from Long Pond access, on the southern end of Bayou Meto WMA. Saracen Casino is only approximately 20 miles away! This spacious 2,320 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom camp is ideal for hunting groups. The open-concept layout and recreational amenities make this a turn-key property you can enjoy from day one.

20. 2026-04-22
    listed $139,900 New Listing 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own a fully furnished camp. The property is right down the road from Long Pond access, on the southern end of Bayou Meto WMA. Saracen Casino is only approximately 20 miles away! This spacious 2,320 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom camp is ideal for hunting groups. The open-concept layout and recreational amenities make this a turn-key property you can enjoy from day one.

21. 2026-04-15
    historical
22. 2026-04-15
    historical
23. 2026-03-24
    price $147,500
24. 2026-03-24
    price $147,500
25. 2026-01-09
    price $159,000
26. 2026-01-09
    price $159,000
27. 2025-10-14
    listed $169,000 New Listing
28. 2025-10-14
    listed $169,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$694
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant structural and aesthetic improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Missing shingles and visible damage
• Major flooring — Worn-out carpet and visible wear
• Major interior walls/paint — Peeling paint and visible damage
• Major bathrooms — Dirty fixtures and visible wear
• Major kitchen — Dirty countertops and visible wear
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Visible rust and wear
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and unkempt appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding and roof repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both interior painting and cleaning — Enhances interior aesthetics and cleanliness
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances overall property appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Missing shingles and visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out carpet and visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Peeling paint and visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Dirty fixtures and visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Dirty countertops and visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Visible rust and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and unkempt appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding and roof repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both interior painting and cleaning — Enhances interior aesthetics and cleanliness ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances overall property appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dewitt School District
• NCES district ID: 0500001
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,526
• Composite: 35.39/100
• National rank: #4947
• State rank: #58 of 238 in AR

Livability — Altheimer

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #24640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 691

Population outlook (Arkansas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,211 people
• By 2030: 16,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 15,158 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 13,916 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 11,278 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 8,805 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 79% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Arkansas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.1) · D 27.1% · R 71.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -44.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.1 2020: R+39.5 2016: R+30.6 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $147,500 CARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $147,500 CARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $159,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $159,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $169,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $169,000 CARMLS