811 Mill St · Gainesville, TX 76240

$127,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1930 10,019 sqft lot $123/sqft · 11% below area Est $157k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special. 2 bedroom, 1 bath frame home. Needs lot of TLC. Buyer to verify all. 'AS IS' sale. Will not pass FHA.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot is approximately 0.23 acre; Directions: See GPS. Turn right onto Carnes St, turn left onto Mill St, house on the left.; Subdivision: Peery Add
• Financial info: Accepts cash and conventional financing; Treat as clear loan status; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or covered parking; other parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1930; Wood construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.7% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#602 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gainesville ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #606 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edison El (683 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,675 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.97%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,849
• List price: $127,500
• Delta: -18.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 W Star St	0.35mi	2/1.0	957 (-8%)	5mo	$195,000	$204	67
113 E Cummings St	0.44mi	2/1.0	962 (-7%)	4mo	$134,500	$140	64
531 N Dixon St N	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+10%)	12mo	$99,500	$88	55
527 N Dixon St N	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+10%)	12mo	$120,000	$106	54
1704 Throckmorton St	0.67mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	6mo	$99,999	$104	52
614 W Scott St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+14%)	15mo	$98,784	$84	51
1009 Moran St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,118 (+8%)	19mo	$138,500	$124	51
605 N Denton St	0.53mi	2/1.0	949 (-8%)	21mo	$149,900	$158	44
1807 Buck St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,149 (+11%)	5mo	$129,000	$112	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,947
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $35,219
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76240

• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,113/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $422	+0% $386	+5% $350	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $322	+0% $386	+5% $450	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $418	base $386	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 E Main St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1263	$1,550	$1.23	44d	1	1.13mi
426 N Clements St Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,307	$1.64	44d	1	1.18mi
1000 Bella Vista Dr Gainesville, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,536	$1.34	44d	1	1.32mi
1610 Elizabeth St Gainesville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,500 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,500 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,500 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,500 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,500 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,500 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,500 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,500 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,500 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $127,500 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $130,000 Active 211-char remark
18. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Investor special. 2 bedroom, 1 bath frame home. Needs lot of TLC. Buyer to verify all. 'AS IS' sale. Will not pass FHA.

19. 2008-12-15
    historical 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Investor special. 2 bedroom, 1 bath frame home. Needs lot of TLC. Buyer to verify all. 'AS IS' sale. Will not pass FHA.

20. 2008-11-06
    listed $24,900 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Investor special. 2 bedroom, 1 bath frame home. Needs lot of TLC. Buyer to verify all. 'AS IS' sale. Will not pass FHA.

21. 2002-05-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,113 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$2,113
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $2,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$666
• After-tax cash flow: $3,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gainesville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820220
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7252
• State rank: #606 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #11445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, TX
• County: Cooke County · 29,419 people
• City population: 29,419
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,419
• Household income: $71,502
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Cooke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,965 people
• By 2030: 39,974 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 39,772 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 39,258 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 37,262 · -6.8%
• By 2100: 33,363 · -16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cooke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.2% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.7pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+68.1 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+58.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.63%
• Current HPI: 247.3822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gainesville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+412.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $127,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2008-12-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-12-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-11-06 Listed $24,900 NTREIS
• 2002-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,113 · +31.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.