625 Cooks Valley Rd Rd · Kingsport, TN 37664

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2004 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a little elbow grease, this spacious double wide will be great as your home or future rental property. Nestled in the trees, you'll have a private oasis to enjoy your morning coffee on the front porch. Each bedroom has a walk in closet and the master bath includes a huge tub to relax in after a long day. Home does need roof repair and a window replacement. In 1996 a single wide was put into place. The property was replaced with the double wide in 2004. Property being sold ''as is'' - buyer, and buyers agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Doublewide home
• Upgraded roof

Tags

• DOUBLEWIDE HOME
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• UPGRADED ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Indian Springs Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #496 of 952 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan Central Middle School (590 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,005
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $54,585
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37664

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5013 Emerald Dr Kingsport, TN	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	13d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-06-24
   soldstatus $164,000
2. 2024-05-15
   status Pending
3. 2024-05-07
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2020-10-20
   soldstatus $55,000
5. 2020-10-16
   soldstatus $55,000 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   With a little elbow grease, this spacious double wide will be great as your home or future rental property. Nestled in the trees, you'll have a private oasis to enjoy your morning coffee on the front porch. Each bedroom has a walk in closet and the master bath includes a huge tub to relax in after a long day. Home does need roof repair and a window replacement. In 1996 a single wide was put into place. The property was replaced with the double wide in 2004. Property being sold ''as is'' - buyer, and buyers agent to verify all information.

6. 2020-08-28
   listed $65,000 544-char remark

   Show marketing remark (544 chars)

   With a little elbow grease, this spacious double wide will be great as your home or future rental property. Nestled in the trees, you'll have a private oasis to enjoy your morning coffee on the front porch. Each bedroom has a walk in closet and the master bath includes a huge tub to relax in after a long day. Home does need roof repair and a window replacement. In 1996 a single wide was put into place. The property was replaced with the double wide in 2004. Property being sold ''as is'' - buyer, and buyers agent to verify all information.

7. 2001-07-12
   soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$877
• After-tax cash flow: $5,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Kingsport

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #6587

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 83,493
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,267
• Household income: $63,653
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 739.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.12%
• Current HPI: 261.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+837.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed $170,000 TVRMLS
• 2020-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-16 Sold (MLS) $55,000 TVRMLS
• 2020-08-28 Listed $65,000 TVRMLS
• 2001-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +71.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.