129 Oak St · Gasconade, MO 65061

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1945 6,969 sqft lot $55/sqft · 23% below area Est $71k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Loaded with potential! 3 bed 1 bath fixer upper home in the small yet growing town of Gasconade. Conveniently located approximately 9 miles from the historic city of Hermann, MO. This home is walking distance from the Gasconade River and two city parks. Whether you are an investor looking to expand your portfolio, raise a family, or just looking for your own wine county retreat. This home is a blank slate to design your ideal home on a budget.

Key facts

• Gasconade river
• Walking distance
• Two city parks

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE
• GASCONADE RIVER
• TWO CITY PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($299/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#876 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.18%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,263
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -22.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Ash St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (+4%)	9mo	$69,900	$67	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $19,763
• Equity at exit: $36,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $56,950
• Equity at exit: $68,576

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65061

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $41	+0% $25	+5% $9	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-15	+0% $25	+5% $65	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $39	base $25	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $55,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2025-12-11
    listed $55,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Loaded with potential! 3 bed 1 bath fixer upper home in the small yet growing town of Gasconade. Conveniently located approximately 9 miles from the historic city of Hermann, MO. This home is walking distance from the Gasconade River and two city parks. Whether you are an investor looking to expand your portfolio, raise a family, or just looking for your own wine county retreat. This home is a blank slate to design your ideal home on a budget.

13. 2017-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$5,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable loss: −$308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gasconade County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,397
• Composite: 38.92/100
• National rank: #4090
• State rank: #86 of 324 in MO

Livability — Gasconade

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #25260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gasconade, MO
• Population (ZIP): 620

Population outlook (Gasconade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,190 people
• By 2030: 13,687 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 12,480 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 11,227 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 8,878 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 6,570 · -53.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Pacific Islander 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gasconade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.4% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+58.3 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 202.2157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.