1222 Lincoln Hwy · New Baltimore, PA 15559

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1926 1.58 ac lot $44/sqft · 63% below area Est $181k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 story vinyl Schellsburg home with separate large workshop for possible commercial usage. All situated on 1.58 acres. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• 1.58 acres
• Large workshop
• 1.58 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE WORKSHOP
• 1.58 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,270 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.63%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,666
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -17.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $48,819
• Equity at exit: $93,840

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $139,200
• Equity at exit: $169,835

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15559

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,759/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $134	+0% $92	+5% $50	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $33	+0% $92	+5% $151	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $130	base $92	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-30
   listed $149,900 Active 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   2 story vinyl Schellsburg home with separate large workshop for possible commercial usage. All situated on 1.58 acres. AS-IS sale, seller will make no repairs.

2. 2020-07-29
   soldstatus $136,000 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   Views, open space, woods with mature timber, pond full of fish. Road frontage. What else could you ask for. Will not last at this price.

3. 2020-06-20
   listed $136,000 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   Views, open space, woods with mature timber, pond full of fish. Road frontage. What else could you ask for. Will not last at this price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,759 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,759 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,759
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$319
• After-tax cash flow: $1,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chestnut Ridge SD
• NCES district ID: 4205880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,762
• Composite: 42.63/100
• National rank: #3185
• State rank: #183 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Baltimore

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1270
• US rank: #15351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,407

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Current HPI: 147.0423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+10.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,900 AHARMLS
• 2020-07-29 Sold (MLS) $136,000 AHARMLS
• 2020-06-20 Listed $136,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,759 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.