7 Darwin Ct · Florissant, MO 63033

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1964 9,295 sqft lot Est $218k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY

Key facts

• Master suite
• New kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $200k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Darwin Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,560 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$128	100
2910 Wellington Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,517 (-3%)	2mo	$159,900	$105	86
9 Darwin Ct	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,540 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$153	84
2945 Dover Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-6%)	2mo	$185,400	$126	82
2940 Dover Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-10%)	1mo	$210,000	$150	72
4 Cameo Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	1mo	$150,000	$107	69
490 Jana Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	1,600 (+3%)	1mo	$195,000	$122	63
2230 Glenoro Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,690 (+8%)	4mo	$196,000	$116	57
2560 Woodsage Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,390 (-11%)	1mo	$220,000	$158	56
549 Rancho Ln	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,432 (-8%)	0mo	$279,000	$195	51
2405 Orleans Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (-9%)	2mo	$239,900	$168	50
13 Lancaster Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (+14%)	1mo	$250,000	$140	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $144,082
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.66×
• Total profit: $429,099
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $450	+0% $394	+5% $337	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $310	+0% $394	+5% $478	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $445	base $394	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Cricket Ct Florissant, MO	4.0	3.0	1560	$2,550	$1.63	44d	1	0.27mi
1785 Trotter Way Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,806	$1.39	8d	1	0.83mi
1740 Deborah Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,750	$1.06	18d	1	0.90mi
979 Dawnview Dr Florissant, MO	5.0	2.0	1574	$1,841	$1.17	44d	1	1.04mi
1600 Horseshoe Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,550	$1.18	44d	1	1.07mi
3 Cantabrian Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,881	$1.31	15d	1	1.09mi
3 Champlain Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	44d	1	1.20mi
15686 93rd Ave Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,948	$1.42	13d	1	1.28mi
2075 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,850	$1.21	15d	1	1.28mi
1095 Humes Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	5d	1	1.34mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	44d	1	1.48mi
4112 Monsols Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,945	$1.74	44d	1	1.48mi
4 Sharon Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   status Active
3. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-06
   price $200,000
5. 2026-02-20
   status Active
6. 2026-02-20
   price $215,000
7. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-21
   price $200,000
9. 2025-11-10
   listed $215,000 Active
10. 2024-07-20
    listed $205,000 Active
11. 2023-10-09
    status Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY

12. 2023-10-09
    listed $200,000 Active 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY

13. 2023-09-28
    soldstatus Closed 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY

14. 2023-01-17
    soldstatus $85,000
15. 1964-08-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$51/yr (+$4/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $4,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+135.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $215,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed $215,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-20 Listed $205,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1964-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,889 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.