1120 E Mission Rd #39 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$129,700

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $145k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Currently offering Three months of Free Space rent to new move ins, do not miss out this amazing deal! Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with with brand new hardwood flooring throughout entire home. Spacious and bright kitchen with abundance of storage and counter space. Brand new windows throughout living room and dining room areas which bring natural lighting and lots of great views. Walk in closet off master bedroom. Large area off kitchen features laundry area and large space for office or multi purpose room. Beautiful fenced backyard with covered porch, large deck, and storage shed. Low maintenance yard features automatic drip sprinkler system, planter to flowers and fruit trees. Fu

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Natural lighting
• Laundry area

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• ABUNDANCE OF STORAGE
• NATURAL LIGHTING
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Mobile home on land lease

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof; Mobile home construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Metal roof; Common-interest lot (land lease community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Built-in range; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Evaporative cooling; Wall/window unit(s); Whole house fan
• Interior features: Built-in range; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,809 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.22%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,152
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1120 E Mission Rd #27	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	8mo	$139,000	$99	86
1120 E Mission Rd #102	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$429,000	$298	86
1120 E Mission Rd #37	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$75,000	$52	82
1120 E Mission Rd Space 94	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	23mo	$155,000	$108	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $63,224
• Equity at exit: $19,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $141,136
• Equity at exit: $11,214

Cash invested: $36,316 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$680
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,946/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $1,459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $129,700

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,549	-5% $1,504	+0% $1,459	+5% $1,414	+10% $1,370
Rent	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,341	+0% $1,459	+5% $1,577	+10% $1,695
Rate	-1.0pp $1,524	-0.5pp $1,492	base $1,459	+0.5pp $1,426	+1.0pp $1,391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,425
• Closing costs: $3,891
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Potter St Fallbrook, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	726	$2,100	$2.89	0d	2	0.69mi
757 N Stage Coach Ln Fallbrook, CA	3.0	2.0	1508	$3,900	$2.59	22d	1	0.70mi
338 E Fallbrook St Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	976	$2,495	$2.56	3d	1	0.91mi
611 Summit Ave Fallbrook, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$3,500	$2.32	11d	1	1.28mi
744 W Fallbrook St Fallbrook, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,200	$2.82	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,700 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,700 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,700 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,700 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,700 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,700 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $129,700 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,800 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $133,800 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $133,800 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,800 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,800 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,800 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,800 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $133,800 Active
16. 2026-04-16
    historical
17. 2026-04-13
    price $132,800
18. 2026-04-06
    price $135,800
19. 2026-01-27
    status Active
20. 2026-01-27
    listed $138,800 Active
21. 2025-12-12
    status Pending
22. 2025-12-12
    historical
23. 2025-12-11
    status Pending
24. 2025-12-05
    historical
25. 2025-09-08
    price $138,800
26. 2025-08-04
    price $146,800
27. 2025-07-24
    listed $158,888 Active
28. 2024-09-27
    soldstatus $134,000 Closed Sale
29. 2024-09-25
    status Pending Sale
30. 2024-09-18
    status Active
31. 2024-09-05
    status Pending Sale
32. 2024-09-02
    price $139,000
33. 2024-08-21
    listed $144,000 Active
34. 2023-10-16
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed Sale
35. 2023-09-06
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2023-08-07
    status Active
37. 2023-07-24
    status Pending Sale
38. 2023-05-09
    price $119,000
39. 2023-04-13
    price $139,900
40. 2023-03-10
    listed $149,900 Active
41. 2023-02-01
    historical
42. 2022-12-28
    price $155,000
43. 2022-12-03
    listed $160,000 Active
44. 2008-03-03
    soldstatus $58,000
45. 2008-02-02
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,946
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,862
• − Management: −$2,862
• − Depreciation: −$3,773
• Taxable income: $16,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,941
• After-tax cash flow: $13,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fallbrook, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+126.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $133,800 SDMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $132,800 SDMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $135,800 SDMLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $138,800 SDMLS
• 2025-12-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $138,800 SDMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $146,800 SDMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $158,888 SDMLS
• 2024-09-27 Sold (MLS) $134,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-09-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-09-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $144,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-16 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-08-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-07-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $119,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-13 Price Changed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2023-03-10 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2023-02-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2022-12-28 Price Changed $155,000 SDMLS
• 2022-12-03 Listed $160,000 SDMLS
• 2008-03-03 Sold (MLS) $58,000 CRMLS
• 2008-02-02 Listed $59,000 CRMLS