JUSTIN Plan · Granbury, TX 76048

$300,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily · 228 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Justin is a spacious and thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 1,875 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island with sink overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. The adjacent dining area flows seamlessly into the expansive family room, creating a comfortable central gathering space. The private primary suite is located toward the rear of the home and includes a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, and a full ensuite bath. Three additional bedrooms are arranged along the opposite side of the home, each with its own closet and convenient access to the secondary bathroom perfect for guests, children, or a home office. A dedicated laundry room, hallway storage, and direct access to the two-car garage add everyday convenience. A covered rear patio completes the design, extending your living space outdoors and offering a relaxing place to unwind. With its smart layout, generous living areas, and private bedroom separation, the Justin provides comfort, functionality, and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Private main bedroom
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE MAIN BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $300,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,185.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $301k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1110 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,035 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,185
• List price: $300,990
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1125 Belhaven St	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,899 (0%)	1mo	$299,685	$158	95
1121 Belhaven St	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,861 (-2%)	1mo	$296,685	$159	92
1141 Belhaven St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,861 (-2%)	1mo	$299,990	$161	90
284 Coronado Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,959 (+3%)	1mo	$379,999	$194	83
245 Coronado Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,959 (+3%)	1mo	$399,999	$204	77
1129 Belhaven St	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,103 (+11%)	1mo	$310,685	$148	76
257 Coronado Ct	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-4%)	1mo	$349,888	$193	75
416 Carnero Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-3%)	0mo	$379,000	$206	75
288 Coronado Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,088 (+10%)	0mo	$389,999	$187	67
1145 Belhaven St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (-13%)	1mo	$291,990	$178	65
184 Ponce De Leon	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,102 (+11%)	0mo	$429,000	$204	57
4243 Cornerstone Cir	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,030 (+7%)	1mo	$369,990	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,742
• Equity at exit: $46,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-147,127
• Equity at exit: $26,819

Cash invested: $86,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.1 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,990 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 161 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1110
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,627
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,653/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,713

Max offer price $219,523

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-412	-5% $-519	+0% $-627	+5% $-734	+10% $-841
Rent	-10% $-778	-5% $-702	+0% $-627	+5% $-551	+10% $-475
Rate	-1.0pp $-470	-0.5pp $-548	base $-627	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,546
• Closing costs: $9,306
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $300,990 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $300,990 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $300,990 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $300,990 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $300,990 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $300,990 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $300,990 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $300,990 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $300,990 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $300,990 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $300,990 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $300,990 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $300,990 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $300,990 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $300,990 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $300,990 Active 207 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $300,990 Active 206 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $300,990 Active 205 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $300,990 Active 204 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $300,990 Active 203 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $300,990 Active 202 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $300,990 Active 201 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $300,990 Active 200 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $300,990 Active 199 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $300,990 Active 198 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $300,990 Active 196 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $300,990 Active 195 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $300,990 Active 194 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $300,990 Active 193 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $300,990 Active 192 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $300,990 Active 191 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $300,990 Active 190 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $300,990 Active 189 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $300,990 Active 188 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $300,990 Active 187 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $300,990 Active 186 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $300,990 Active 185 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $300,990 Active 183 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $300,990 Active 181 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $300,990 Active 180 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $300,990 Active 177 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $300,990 Active 176 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $300,990 Active 175 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $300,990 Active 174 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $300,990 Active 172 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $300,990 Active 168 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $300,990 Active 167 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,990 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,990 Active 163 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,990 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,375
• − Property taxes: −$4,653
• − Insurance: −$1,551
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$9,024
• Taxable loss: −$13,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,179
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-story home with a spacious layout and modern finishes is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nettie Baccus El F TX #1,744/4,322 Nat'l #21,283/41,679 Middle Granbury Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Granbury H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granbury, TX
• County: Hood County · 63,502 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Listed $298,990 Zillow