38 Lewis St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1910 3,074 sqft lot $65/sqft · 38% below area Est $104k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

An honest fixer-upper with real potential, 38 Lewis Street is your chance to get into the Buffalo market at the right price. The home is currently occupied by a tenant paying $900 per month, who has expressed interest in staying, giving you income while you work through improvements at your own pace. The main floor features two bedrooms, a formal dining area, a spacious kitchen, and the convenience of first-floor laundry. Out back, you'll find a quaint yard with off-street parking on a blacktop driveway, a perk that's harder to come by than you'd think. The vinyl siding keeps exterior maintenance straightforward, so you can focus your energy on the interior. Upstairs is where the opportunity really lives. The upper level is unfinished and ready to be transformed into a third bedroom, a home office, or a bonus living space, adding usable space and rental value once brought up to speed. This is a property for the buyer who can see past the cosmetics and understands what a little sweat equity can do. With a tenant in place and room to build value, 38 Lewis Street is a project worth taking seriously.

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• Vinyl siding
• Off-street parking

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• VINYL SIDING
• UNFINISHED UPPER LEVEL
• THIRD BEDROOM

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $64,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$103,926) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.80%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,926
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -37.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Thomas St	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,074 (+8%)	18mo	$83,000	$77	59
703 Smith St	0.50mi	3/— (+1)	1,064 (+7%)	4mo	$43,000	$40	56
29 Lord St	0.57mi	2/1.0	879 (-11%)	1mo	$163,000	$185	54
83 Troupe St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,138 (+15%)	3mo	$136,210	$120	43
17 Clifford St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+5%)	20mo	$55,000	$53	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $52,847
• Equity at exit: $49,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $134,164
• Equity at exit: $98,631

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Detroit St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	43d	1	0.67mi
118 Detroit St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	620	$850	$1.37	23d	1	0.67mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.71mi
674 Clinton St Unit 6 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	14d	1	0.79mi
950 Broadway Unit 307 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	675	$940	$1.39	3d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $64,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $69,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $74,900 Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    An honest fixer-upper with real potential, 38 Lewis Street is your chance to get into the Buffalo market at the right price. The home is currently occupied by a tenant paying $900 per month, who has expressed interest in staying, giving you income while you work through improvements at your own pace. The main floor features two bedrooms, a formal dining area, a spacious kitchen, and the convenience of first-floor laundry. Out back, you'll find a quaint yard with off-street parking on a blacktop driveway, a perk that's harder to come by than you'd think. The vinyl siding keeps exterior maintenance straightforward, so you can focus your energy on the interior. Upstairs is where the opportunity really lives. The upper level is unfinished and ready to be transformed into a third bedroom, a home office, or a bonus living space, adding usable space and rental value once brought up to speed. This is a property for the buyer who can see past the cosmetics and understands what a little sweat equity can do. With a tenant in place and room to build value, 38 Lewis Street is a project worth taking seriously.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$979
• After-tax cash flow: $3,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $118 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.