2919 Carlton St NW · Albuquerque, NM 87107

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1940 4,748 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property in need of a full rehab, offering a great opportunity with the right vision and plan. Property to be sold As-is, Where-is.

Key facts

• 4,748 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.7% in Albuquerque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#13 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.44%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $38,998
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $111,455
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87107

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3308 4th St NW Unit 204 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	3d	1	0.19mi
3308 4th St NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	14d	10	0.19mi
2818 4th St NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,795	$2.04	19d	7	0.25mi
219 Candelaria Rd NW Unit 211 3 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	3d	1	0.32mi
500 Phoenix Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	14d	1	0.37mi
601 Menaul Blvd NE Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,850	$1.39	14d	1	0.43mi
601 Menaul Blvd NE Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,600	$1.19	43d	1	0.43mi
601 Menaul Blvd NE Unit 4406 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1347	$1,800	$1.34	3d	1	0.44mi
511 Candelaria Rd NW Unit 3 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	0.49mi
609 Candelaria Rd NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	0.54mi
404 Prospect Ave NE Unit B Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	14d	1	0.57mi
403 Aztec Rd NW Apt 7A Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	19d	1	0.60mi
505 Headingly Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.69mi
204 San Clemente Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,550	$1.35	43d	1	0.78mi
202 San Clemente Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,525	$1.33	23d	1	0.79mi
202 San Clemente Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,550	$1.35	43d	1	0.79mi
4322 4th St NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	860	$1,300	$1.51	43d	1	0.86mi
4322 4th St NW Unit 37 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	860	$1,300	$1.51	23d	1	0.86mi
4449 3rd St NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	19d	1	0.88mi
1312 Cordova Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,900	$1.67	23d	1	0.93mi
1229 Menaul Blvd NW Apt C Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	816	$1,125	$1.38	23d	1	0.97mi
801 Locust Pl NE Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0–2.0	539	$1,649	$3.06	3d	21	1.03mi
1700 Violetas Rd NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,695	$1.19	19d	1	1.30mi
315 San Andres Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,795	$1.45	43d	1	1.30mi
222 Shannon Pl NW Unit 1 Albuquerque, NM	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	43d	1	1.31mi
222 Shannon Pl NW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	43d	1	1.31mi
1501 Indian School Rd NE Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$1,450	$1.89	3d	26	1.31mi
165 Hilton Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	1257	$1,695	$1.35	14d	1	1.39mi
165 Hilton Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	1257	$1,695	$1.35	43d	1	1.39mi
1812 Indian School Rd NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,705	$2.20	3d	9	1.39mi
207 Delamar Loop NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	14d	1	1.42mi
1106 Arias Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,500	$1.93	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2025-09-30
   price $75,000
4. 2025-07-15
   price $85,000
5. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus
6. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus
7. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $134,440
8. 2021-11-12
   soldstatus
9. 2021-05-18
   soldstatus
10. 2021-04-03
    status Pending
11. 2021-04-01
    listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,965
• After-tax cash flow: $6,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — Albuquerque

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #6219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albuquerque, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 647,165
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 27,566
• Household income: $61,672
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1347.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 42% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.44%
• Current HPI: 251.556
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+21.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $75,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $75,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $85,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $134,440 Public Records
• 2021-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-03 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2021-04-01 Listed $62,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

-10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.