1826 Hilton Head Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1976 0.36 ac lot Est $268k · 7% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity in the established Thunderbird subdivision of Quail Valley! This one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is situated on an oversized lot offering space, privacy, and strong potential. The property offers a functional and open layout with natural light throughout. The spacious living room features an exposed beam, gas-log fireplace, and large windows that fill the space with natural light. The primary suite includes two walk-in closets and an en-suite bath, while two secondary bedrooms are well-sized and share a full hall bathroom. The expansive backyard offers abundant space for outdoor living, entertaining, or future improvements. The home is being sold AS-IS and

Key facts

• Large windows
• Walk-in closets
• Open layout

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EXPOSED BEAM
• GAS-LOG FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Thunderbird North association with an annual fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Greenbelt lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 12x18)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11x10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,389 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-4%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	80
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+13%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	66
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+2%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	65
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	63
3107 Southern Hills Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-15%)	0mo	$265,000	$173	63
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-3%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	61
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-6%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	58
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+4%)	1mo	$327,000	$174	56
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+10%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	54
3710 Quail Meadow Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-7%)	3mo	$250,000	$149	51
2126 Quail Valley East Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-15%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	51
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,168
• Equity at exit: $52,432

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,838
• Equity at exit: $48,565

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,490/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $231,493

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	0.41mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	44d	1	0.41mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.60mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	17d	1	0.69mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	0.73mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.99mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.23mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	1.24mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	21d	1	1.26mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	13d	1	1.39mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $250,000 Active
15. 2015-03-04
    soldstatus
16. 2001-05-18
    soldstatus
17. 1995-04-12
    soldstatus
18. 1994-04-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,490 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$85/yr (+$7/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,490
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2015-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,490 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.