4815 Cimmaron Trl · Western Lake, TX 76087

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2019 0.32 ac lot $85/sqft · 38% above area Est $120k · 34% over $8/mo HOA ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUD Case #513-286551. Welcome to 4815 Cimmaron Trl, a well-appointed 4 bedroom 2 bath home located in Weatherford. This thoughtfully designed property offers a functional layout ideal for a variety of lifestyles, featuring comfortable living spaces and a seamless flow between common areas and bedrooms. The spacious interior provides flexibility for both everyday living and entertaining, with a layout that accommodates a growing household, home office needs, or guest space. The kitchen and living areas serve as the heart of the home, offering a welcoming environment for gathering and relaxation. This property offers convenient access to local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, wh

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Seamless flow
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• SEAMLESS FLOW
• SPACIOUS INTERIOR
• KITCHEN AND LIVING AREAS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing is HUD owned; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Association fee $90 annually; Association fee includes full use of facilities; HOA: Western Lakes Owner Association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Co-op electric service; Septic system; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Built in 2019; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Year built 2019
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.324 acres); Subdivision: Western Lake Estates

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances: Other)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on first level)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level layout; Two living areas; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 1.9% in Western Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,506 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Curtis El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 661 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.24%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,832
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 33.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4725 Valley View Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+12%)	6mo	$160,000	$76	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,329
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $31,780
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76087

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,843/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $614	+0% $569	+5% $524	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $479	+0% $569	+5% $659	+10% $749
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $610	base $569	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $160,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $200,000 Active 876-char remark
17. 2024-07-15
    soldstatus
18. 2024-04-30
    status Pending
19. 2024-04-22
    historical Active Option Contract
20. 2024-04-22
    historical
21. 2024-04-15
    price $222,222
22. 2024-03-20
    price $224,900
23. 2024-03-04
    price $229,900
24. 2024-02-19
    price $232,500
25. 2024-01-30
    price $235,000
26. 2024-01-18
    listed $240,000 Active
27. 1988-03-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,843
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,116
• After-tax cash flow: $5,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Western Lake

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1506
• US rank: #25775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Western Lake, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,822
• Household income: $114,306
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.16%
• Current HPI: 214.6694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $222,222 NTREIS
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $224,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $232,500 NTREIS
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 1988-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+35.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,843 · +44.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.