443 16th Ave · East Moline, IL 61244

$125,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1920 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully occupied side by side duplex that has had full occupency for over 20 years! Tenants pay all utilities and landlord covers lawn care. Month to month leases in place.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two units in building; Both units report tenant-paid utilities; Both units include Stove, Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer, Microwave; Both units show rent around $600 and security deposit $600 (historical lease expiration dates listed)
• Financial info: Insurance expense listed as $1,200; Tax information available (tax year 2024)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two- to four-unit property; Unincorporated location; Directions: Right on 16th between Kennedy Dr and 5th St
• Construction: Built 81–90 years ago; Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Level lot; Less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Each unit has 2 bedrooms (both units on first floor)
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 2 bathrooms (1 full and 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Commuter bus access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.5% in East Moline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools F.
• United Twp Hsd 30 (suburban): math 12% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #536 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Rock Island County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rock Island County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,647
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,988
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61244

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,215/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $248	+0% $212	+5% $177	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $153	+0% $212	+5% $272	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $244	base $212	+0.5pp $180	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 15th Ave East Moline, IL	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	22d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $125,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,215 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,215 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,215
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$162
• After-tax cash flow: $2,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: United Twp Hsd 30
• NCES district ID: 1739870
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,647
• Composite: 11.91/100
• National rank: #9670
• State rank: #536 of 620 in IL

Livability — East Moline

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #16964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Moline, IL
• County: Rock Island County · 103,822 people
• City population: 23,308
• Metro: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,308
• Household income: $63,819
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Rock Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 140,982 people
• By 2030: 137,705 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 130,512 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 123,841 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 109,851 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 90,922 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 18% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: English 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, United Kingdom, Philippines
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rock Island

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.6) · D 53.9% · R 44.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.6 2020: D+12.1 2016: D+8.4 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.05%
• Current HPI: 154.4012
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,215 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.