3934 Sarah Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1984 5,769 sqft lot Est $185k · 24% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Your Florida Retreat Awaits! If you’ve been searching for a place that offers comfort, convenience, and a relaxed Florida lifestyle, this new listing in Terrace Park is one you won’t want to miss. Situated on a desirable corner lot across from the community pool, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is designed for easy living, whether you’re looking for a seasonal getaway or a full-time residence. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the thoughtful features that make this home stand out. There’s ample parking with an extended driveway, a covered carport, and additional space for guests. The inviting front p

Key facts

• Community pool
• Covered carport
• Front porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• COVERED CARPORT
• FRONT PORCH
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total building area approximately 1,728 square feet; Living area approximately 1,368 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly $43 / annual $516); Association requires approval; Association amenities include pool and common area taxes; Clubhouse; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK, max ~20 lb, breed restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Attached property; Single-story; Faces southwest; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as completed (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Corner lot; Paved lot and road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Living room fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan; Florida room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $995 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $140k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.48%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,680
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3818 Chris Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+3%)	9mo	$180,000	$128	81
3819 Kim Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-4%)	6mo	$99,900	$76	78
3538 Kiah Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+3%)	15mo	$225,000	$160	70
3741 New River Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$260,000	$208	65
3841 Julie Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$135,000	$108	64
3946 Ernest Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-9%)	12mo	$235,000	$188	56
3825 Julie Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-13%)	17mo	$160,000	$135	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $33,769
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $84,221
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $995

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	0.11mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	24d	1	0.56mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	5d	1	0.60mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	0.61mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	0.64mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	3d	46	0.67mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	1.11mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	24d	1	1.12mi
4013 Constantine Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,050	$1.30	12d	1	1.13mi
34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1852	$3,200	$1.73	24d	1	1.19mi
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	11d	1	1.20mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.22mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	24d	1	1.22mi
4255 Ashton Meadows Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,050	$1.33	24d	1	1.22mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	24d	1	1.22mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	5d	1	1.27mi
4966 Avalon Park Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	24d	1	1.28mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	5d	1	1.32mi
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	20d	1	1.35mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	2d	1	1.42mi
3060 Mountain Spruce Ter Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1831	$2,900	$1.58	24d	1	1.44mi
5227 Little Stream Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,369	$1.48	17d	1	1.45mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	4d	1	1.46mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	18d	1	1.48mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	10d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   status Active
3. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-22
   listed $139,900 Active
5. 2012-11-05
   historical
6. 2012-08-29
   listed $64,900
7. 2012-06-26
   historical
8. 2012-03-02
   listed $64,900
9. 2006-06-02
   soldstatus $72,000
10. 2006-05-31
    soldstatus $72,000
11. 2006-03-14
    listed $79,900
12. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus $65,000
13. 1993-12-17
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$796/yr (+$66/mo · 217.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $10,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,460
• After-tax cash flow: $9,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+164.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-29 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-02 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Sold (MLS) $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-14 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.