2964 Vineyards Pkwy #5 · Branson, MO 65616

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · Condo public records · 467 Days on market

Built 2007 $177/sqft · 8% below area Est $223k · 8% under $265/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This charming fully furnished penthouse is a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom turn-key condo perfect for family vacations, and also makes an ideal vacation rental when you're not using it. Currently managed by a local management company, this condo comfortably sleeps up to 8 guests. Inside, you'll find two king-sized beds plus oversized bunk beds in the third bedroom -- perfect for kids or extra guests. You will love the open-concept living space, and the stylish hard surface flooring throughout adds a modern touch. The modern kitchen features sleek countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of storage, plus a useful coffee bar for your morning brew. The spacious bedrooms offer cozy retreats with ample closet space, while the updated bathrooms boast contemporary fixtures and a fresh, clean feel. Full-size laundry makes longer stays a breeze. Step outside to your private patio and take in the cool Ozarks rock wall view -- a unique and memorable touch. This condo is located in a vibrant neighborhood close to shops, restaurants, and all the fun of Branson. Plus, enjoy access to the community pool which is just a short walk away. Don't miss out on this gem -- schedule a tour today and see it for yourself! We have a 360 Matterport for walk through viewing under photos section.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Private patio
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED PENTHOUSE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• OZARKS ROCK WALL VIEW
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.5% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1057 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 467 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,607 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 467 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,839
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -8.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-43,848
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-51,965
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1057
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,335/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $175,607

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-108	+0% $-166	+5% $-224	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-239	+0% $-166	+5% $-94	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-114	base $-166	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	44d	1	0.10mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	44d	1	0.10mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	44d	1	0.72mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	44d	1	1.04mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	44d	2	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $265 · $3,180/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 467 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 465 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 464 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 463 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 462 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 459 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 458 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 454 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 453 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 449 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 448 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 447 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 446 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 445 DOM
17. 2026-01-16
    price $205,000 1304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1304 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming fully furnished penthouse is a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom turn-key condo perfect for family vacations, and also makes an ideal vacation rental when you're not using it. Currently managed by a local management company, this condo comfortably sleeps up to 8 guests. Inside, you'll find two king-sized beds plus oversized bunk beds in the third bedroom -- perfect for kids or extra guests. You will love the open-concept living space, and the stylish hard surface flooring throughout adds a modern touch. The modern kitchen features sleek countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of storage, plus a useful coffee bar for your morning brew. The spacious bedrooms offer cozy retreats with ample closet space, while the updated bathrooms boast contemporary fixtures and a fresh, clean feel. Full-size laundry makes longer stays a breeze. Step outside to your private patio and take in the cool Ozarks rock wall view -- a unique and memorable touch. This condo is located in a vibrant neighborhood close to shops, restaurants, and all the fun of Branson. Plus, enjoy access to the community pool which is just a short walk away. Don't miss out on this gem -- schedule a tour today and see it for yourself! We have a 360 Matterport for walk through viewing under photos section.

18. 2025-03-11
    listed $215,000 Active 1304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1304 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming fully furnished penthouse is a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom turn-key condo perfect for family vacations, and also makes an ideal vacation rental when you're not using it. Currently managed by a local management company, this condo comfortably sleeps up to 8 guests. Inside, you'll find two king-sized beds plus oversized bunk beds in the third bedroom -- perfect for kids or extra guests. You will love the open-concept living space, and the stylish hard surface flooring throughout adds a modern touch. The modern kitchen features sleek countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of storage, plus a useful coffee bar for your morning brew. The spacious bedrooms offer cozy retreats with ample closet space, while the updated bathrooms boast contemporary fixtures and a fresh, clean feel. Full-size laundry makes longer stays a breeze. Step outside to your private patio and take in the cool Ozarks rock wall view -- a unique and memorable touch. This condo is located in a vibrant neighborhood close to shops, restaurants, and all the fun of Branson. Plus, enjoy access to the community pool which is just a short walk away. Don't miss out on this gem -- schedule a tour today and see it for yourself! We have a 360 Matterport for walk through viewing under photos section.

19. 2022-10-12
    soldstatus Closed 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

20. 2022-09-17
    status Pending 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

21. 2022-08-26
    price $250,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

22. 2022-07-29
    status Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

23. 2022-07-05
    status Pending 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

24. 2022-06-24
    listed $255,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    Turn-Key Vacation Rental!!! Amazing Opportunity for a Primary, Secondary or investment Property being Minutes from all Branson has to offer from Silver Dollar City, the Branson Strip or Landing, as well as being just a short drive to Table Rock Lake. This fully Furnished and remodeled unit has so much to offer for all your needs and is already income producing.

25. 2021-04-09
    listed $155,000
26. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus
27. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus
28. 2020-06-01
    soldstatus
29. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus
30. 2020-02-18
    listed $91,500
31. 2016-05-28
    soldstatus
32. 2016-04-22
    listed $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,335 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,335 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,335
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+365.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $205,000 SOMO
• 2025-03-11 Listed $215,000 SOMO
• 2022-10-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2022-09-17 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $250,000 SOMO
• 2022-07-29 Relisted — SOMO
• 2022-07-05 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-06-24 Listed $255,000 SOMO
• 2021-04-09 Listed $155,000 SOMO
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-09 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-02-18 Listed $91,500 SOMO
• 2016-05-28 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2016-04-22 Listed $44,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,335 · +187.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.