706 12th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 10,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Your new project is here! This property is located on a great street, in Shallowater school district. It just needs love! This is a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom floor plan, with living room and kitchen, and laundry room. Backyard is very large! Property also has a carport. Come look at this one ASAP

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Carport
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• SHALLOWATER SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; Additional parking available; Off-street and on-street parking
• Utilities: Publicly maintained road access; City street frontage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storage; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: No appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater El (330 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.16%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $73,519
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 13.88×
• Total profit: $180,377
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $739	+0% $725	+5% $711	+10% $697
Rent	-10% $606	-5% $665	+0% $725	+5% $785	+10% $845
Rate	-1.0pp $750	-0.5pp $738	base $725	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	15d	1	0.74mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	22d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $50,000
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2025-03-25
   soldstatus $770,000
5. 2015-06-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $6,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-93.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $50,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $60,000 LARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $770,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,241 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.