5024 Shawnee · Weldon, CA 93283

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1979 5,921 sqft lot Est $160k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in Weldon! This mountain-view manufactured home offers endless potential for investors, vacation home buyers, outdoor enthusiasts, or those seeking a full-time residence. The open-concept floor plan features a spacious living area, updated cabinetry, wood-look flooring, and a large elevated deck showcasing panoramic mountain views. Covered parking beneath the home, low-maintenance landscaping, and multiple outdoor spaces provide additional value-add opportunities. Conveniently located near Lake Isabella, the Kern River, hiking trails, fishing, boating, and year-round recreation.

Key facts

• Wood-look flooring
• Covered parking
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• LARGE ELEVATED DECK
• COVERED PARKING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; No ADU; No common walls
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry at front
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Front yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level home; Living room; Family room; Has fireplace in the living room; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.19%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,840
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5109 Shawnee Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$160,000	$111	86
5037 Shawnee Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	5mo	$160,000	$119	83
5021 Cherokee Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	19mo	$150,000	$107	79
9105 Navajo Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	10mo	$128,000	$103	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $61,515
• Equity at exit: $80,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $167,088
• Equity at exit: $163,998

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $287	+0% $252	+5% $218	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $199	+0% $252	+5% $306	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $278	base $252	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 604-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $2,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+233.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $99,900 GEMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $99,900 CRMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $99,900,000 GEMLS
• 2025-08-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Pending — GEMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $20,000 GEMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $20,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-14 Sold (MLS) $135,000 GEMLS
• 2023-06-14 Sold (MLS) $135,000 SSMLS
• 2023-05-02 Pending — SSMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — GEMLS
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $135,000 SSMLS
• 2023-03-02 Price Changed $135,000 GEMLS
• 2023-02-15 Listed $139,000 GEMLS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $139,000 SSMLS
• 2019-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-16 Sold (MLS) $91,000 SSMLS
• 2019-06-12 Listed $91,000 SSMLS
• 2015-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-07 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CRMLS
• 2015-05-23 Price Changed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-02 Price Changed $109,500 CRMLS
• 2015-03-14 Price Changed $119,500 CRMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $129,500 CRMLS
• 2010-08-13 Sold (MLS) $28,000 GEMLS
• 2010-07-21 Price Changed $39,900 GEMLS
• 2010-07-21 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2010-05-02 Listed $28,000 GEMLS
• 2005-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $186 · -9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.