976 Pr 7830 · Broaddus, TX 75929

$75,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 10,454 sqft lot $89/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your charming lake getaway at Lake Sam Rayburn! This quaint 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cottage style home offers 848 square feet of comfortable living space—ideal for a low-maintenance retreat. Nestled in the lakeside community of Sutton Hills, you'll enjoy a peaceful environment within a neighborhood featuring restrictions and exclusive community lake access just moments away. Whether you're looking for a serene camp or a weekend getaway, this charming property provides the perfect destination for relaxation and recreation by the water. Don't miss your chance to own a slice of this lake paradise!

Key facts

• Lakeside community
• Lake getaway
• Cottage style home

Tags

• LAKE GETAWAY
• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Residential single-family patio home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Located on a 0.24-acre lot; Subdivision: Sutton Hills C

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($897 rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#844 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Broaddus ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in San Augustine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($522 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• San Augustine County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,235 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,634
• List price: $75,500
• Delta: -52.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1190 Cr 371	0.22mi	2/1.0	900 (+6%)	7mo	$369,000	$410	74
220 PR 7842	0.31mi	2/1.5	840 (-1%)	15mo	$159,900	$190	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $49,291
• Equity at exit: $64,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $135,000
• Equity at exit: $134,112

Cash invested: $21,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75929

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $75,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,875
• Closing costs: $2,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,500 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,500 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,500 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,500 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,500 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,500 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,500 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,500 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,500 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,500 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,500 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,500 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,500 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    historical
16. 2026-04-14
    price $75,500
17. 2026-03-02
    price $79,900
18. 2026-03-01
    listed $89,000 Active
19. 2026-02-27
    historical
20. 2025-09-02
    listed $99,000 Active
21. 2025-09-02
    listed $75,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,229
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$861
• − Management: −$861
• − Depreciation: −$2,196
• Taxable income: $1,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$265
• After-tax cash flow: $1,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming 2-bedroom cottage-style home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key updates include painting, replacing carpet, and updating kitchen and bathroom fixtures.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and small
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace worn carpet — improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and increases value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — expands functionality and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and small	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace worn carpet — improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — expands functionality and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broaddus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,033
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5166
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Broaddus

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #844
• US rank: #15273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,440

Population outlook (San Augustine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,544 people
• By 2030: 7,094 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 6,327 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 5,645 · -25.2%
• By 2075: 4,447 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 3,299 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Augustine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.3) · D 21.6% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -27.3pp · 2024: -56.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.3 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+48.1 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+27.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Current HPI: 173.6378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $75,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $75,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $99,000 HARMLS