10161 Evelyn Ave · California City, CA 93505

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2006 10,454 sqft lot Est $337k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home features 9' walls, granite countertops in kitchen, 4 bed and two bath. Ceramic tile in kitchen, dining room and bathrooms. Also includes Indoor laundry. Property is sold AS-IS. Buyer to verify all facts.

Key facts

• Solar
• Quarter acre lot
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• QUARTER ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• SOLAR
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Traditional single-story home; Facing not specified
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built on lot in Tract 2252; Zoned R1
• Exterior features: RV access possible; Contracted solar panels; Paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Family room; Fireplace in family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $240k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,567 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,804
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9840 Margery Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-2%)	2mo	$275,000	$169	83
9925 Irene Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,750 (+6%)	0mo	$280,000	$160	72
21601 Adler	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+13%)	1mo	$360,000	$194	66
9701 Susan Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+6%)	3mo	$345,000	$197	63
10611 Garibaldi Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	1mo	$175,000	$117	62
10549 Camille Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-9%)	1mo	$319,000	$212	60
21631 Sheridan Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+8%)	4mo	$389,000	$217	55
9908 Susan Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (-13%)	3mo	$320,000	$224	54
9508 Evelyn Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-11%)	0mo	$300,000	$203	49
21251 Calhoun Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-13%)	4mo	$330,000	$231	42
21241 Calhoun Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (-13%)	2mo	$323,000	$226	39
21420 Reed Pl	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,858 (+12%)	1mo	$379,900	$204	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $146,318
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $434,435
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,607/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,889

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $231	+0% $163	+5% $95	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $80	+0% $163	+5% $246	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $224	base $163	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	15d	1	0.06mi
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	45d	1	0.58mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	24d	1	0.69mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	0.74mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.74mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	4d	1	0.75mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	24d	1	0.77mi
21398 Baldwin Ln California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	3d	1	0.99mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	4d	1	1.12mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $240,000 Active
2. 2015-03-16
   historical
3. 2009-03-17
   soldstatus $91,000 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Home features 9' walls, granite countertops in kitchen, 4 bed and two bath. Ceramic tile in kitchen, dining room and bathrooms. Also includes Indoor laundry. Property is sold AS-IS. Buyer to verify all facts.

4. 2008-11-10
   listed $94,900 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Home features 9' walls, granite countertops in kitchen, 4 bed and two bath. Ceramic tile in kitchen, dining room and bathrooms. Also includes Indoor laundry. Property is sold AS-IS. Buyer to verify all facts.

5. 2008-03-13
   listed $124,000
6. 2006-08-11
   soldstatus $262,500
7. 2006-03-09
   listed $254,900
8. 2004-11-22
   soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,607
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$506
• After-tax cash flow: $2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2426.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $240,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2009-03-17 Sold (MLS) $91,000 AVMLS
• 2008-11-10 Listed $94,900 AVMLS
• 2008-03-13 Listed $124,000 AVMLS
• 2006-08-11 Sold (MLS) $262,500 AVMLS
• 2006-03-09 Listed $254,900 AVMLS
• 2004-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,607 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.