1351 Maria Dr · Jackson, MS 39204

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1959 9,147 sqft lot $66/sqft · 70% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

Key facts

• Updated hvac
• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• UPDATED HVAC
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORS
• COVERED BACK PATIO AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,205/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 7173% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.32%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,066
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 69.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2716 Woodside Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,184 (-2%)	0mo	$54,900	$46	92
1319 Dorgan St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-7%)	1mo	$65,000	$57	76
2566 Mcdowell Cir	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,204 (-1%)	3mo	$35,000	$29	72
2805 Engleside Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-1%)	0mo	$54,200	$45	61
404 Mcdowell Park Cir	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,358 (+12%)	4mo	$99,000	$73	58
2920 Lakewood Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (-7%)	1mo	$69,900	$62	58
2646 Revere St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+12%)	0mo	$30,000	$22	58
1776 Wood Glen Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+8%)	5mo	$39,900	$30	58
931 Stuart St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+13%)	3mo	$32,500	$24	46
1539 Woodburn St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,043 (-14%)	5mo	$90,000	$86	46
2677 Shannon St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-15%)	2mo	$60,000	$58	44
1416 Wooddell Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+12%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $74,130
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.60×
• Total profit: $215,136
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,436/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $402	+0% $379	+5% $357	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $332	+0% $379	+5% $427	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $400	base $379	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	24d	1	0.14mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	15d	1	0.14mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	15d	1	0.24mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	45d	1	0.24mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	24d	1	0.34mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	15d	1	0.34mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	15d	1	0.44mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.60mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.70mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	15d	1	0.70mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	45d	1	0.73mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	45d	1	0.76mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.79mi
3049 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	45d	1	0.82mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	45d	1	0.83mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	45d	1	0.86mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	45d	1	0.86mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	45d	1	0.93mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	15d	1	0.94mi
1219 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,150	$1.09	24d	1	0.96mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	15d	1	0.97mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	15d	1	0.99mi
2401 Coronet Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.13mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	15d	1	1.24mi
3308 Ramona St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	22d	1	1.24mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	45d	1	1.29mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	15d	1	1.29mi
5136 Lurline Dr Unit Ma Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,100	$0.97	15d	1	1.34mi
267 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1165	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	1.37mi
422 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,426	$1.36	24d	1	1.37mi
225 W McDowell Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	18	1.37mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	15d	1	1.38mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	24d	1	1.38mi
1010 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,050	$0.92	15d	1	1.43mi
1018 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$900	$0.85	24d	1	1.44mi
3511 Sykes Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,426	$1.16	15d	1	1.46mi
1054 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,050	$0.93	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 317 DOM
17. 2025-10-23
    price $80,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

18. 2025-10-10
    price $83,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

19. 2025-09-06
    historical $950
20. 2025-07-30
    listed $1,100
21. 2025-07-26
    historical $1,100
22. 2025-07-24
    price $1,100
23. 2025-07-14
    listed $86,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

24. 2025-05-13
    listed $1,250
25. 2024-09-20
    soldstatus Closed 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

26. 2024-08-07
    soldstatus
27. 2024-05-10
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

28. 2024-04-20
    status Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

29. 2024-03-25
    historical $1,075
30. 2024-03-20
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

31. 2024-02-15
    listed $1,075
32. 2024-02-01
    historical $1,075
33. 2024-01-30
    listed $89,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with updated HVAC, new luxury vinyl floors, and fresh paint. Featuring a large carport and covered back patio area.

34. 2024-01-20
    price $1,075
35. 2023-08-24
    listed $1,150
36. 2021-10-08
    historical
37. 2021-10-04
    historical
38. 2013-10-25
    soldstatus
39. 2013-09-26
    soldstatus
40. 2013-07-14
    listed $14,900
41. 2008-03-27
    historical
42. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus
43. 2006-02-28
    listed $74,500
44. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus
45. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus
46. 2004-04-20
    listed $63,900
47. 2003-07-15
    listed $58,000
48. 1999-03-29
    listed $55,000
49. 1997-07-09
    soldstatus
50. 1991-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,436
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$840
• After-tax cash flow: $3,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+45.5% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $80,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $83,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-06 Rental Removed $950 Hemlane
• 2025-07-30 Listed for Rent $1,100 Hemlane
• 2025-07-26 Rental Removed $1,100 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $1,100 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-07-14 Listed $86,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-13 Listed for Rent $1,250 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-04-20 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-03-25 Rental Removed $1,075 MLSU
• 2024-03-20 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,075 MLSU
• 2024-02-01 Rental Removed $1,075 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-30 Listed $89,000 MLSU
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $1,075 BUILDIUM
• 2023-08-24 Listed for Rent $1,150 BUILDIUM
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2013-10-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-14 Listed $14,900 MLSU
• 2008-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2006-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-28 Listed $74,500 MLSU
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2004-04-20 Listed $63,900 MLSU
• 2003-07-15 Listed $58,000 MLSU
• 1999-03-29 Listed $55,000 MLSU
• 1997-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,436 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.