210 N Canyon Dr · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$57,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 360 sqft · Land public records · 565 Days on market

Built 1984 0.39 ac lot $160/sqft · 179% above area Est $60k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 565 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath land listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 4.2% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carmichael Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 299 students, 75% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 36% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 565 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $58k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 565 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.57%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,431
• List price: $57,500
• Delta: -4.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $16,331
• Equity at exit: $8,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $39,409
• Equity at exit: $4,972

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $467	+0% $450	+5% $434	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $369	-5% $409	+0% $450	+5% $491	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $465	base $450	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
555 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$919	$1.76	45d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $57,500 Active 565 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $57,500 Active 563 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,500 Active 562 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,500 Active 561 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,500 Active 560 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,500 Active 559 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $57,500 Active 557 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $57,500 Active 556 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,500 Active 553 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $57,500 Active 552 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,500 Active 551 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $57,500 Active 548 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,500 Active 547 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,500 Active 546 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,500 Active 545 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,500 Active 544 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $57,500 Active 543 DOM
18. 2026-01-16
    status Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

19. 2026-01-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

20. 2025-11-23
    status Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

21. 2025-11-22
    historical 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

22. 2025-10-30
    price $57,500 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

23. 2025-10-14
    status Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

24. 2025-10-08
    historical 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

25. 2025-06-02
    price $69,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

26. 2025-04-22
    price $75,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

27. 2024-11-21
    listed $90,000 Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    2 homes on 1 Lot in Sierra Vista. Green one is a 2 bed 2 bath. Pink one is a Studio 1 bath. Both need work. Great location close to all amenities.!

28. 2024-03-13
    historical
29. 2024-02-23
    listed $88,000 Active
30. 2016-07-18
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $4,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $4,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+210.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-11-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $57,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $88,000 ARMLS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.