15802 S Gilbert Rd #20 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$27,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 427 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 3,600 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice and clean home with new dual pane windows, paint interior and exterior, flooring and carpet. Home includes stainless appliances in a nice kitchen and full-size washer and dryer, private shed and patio. This is a 55+, No Pets Allowed community but very nice and the amenities include a clubhouse and pool for only $495 per month which includes water, trash and sewer.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Stainless appliances
• Pool

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE SHED
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size listed as 3,600 (source: Assessor); Directions: Across from Fry's on west side of Gilbert Road
• HOA & community: Land lease community with $495 monthly land lease; Association covers grounds maintenance; Community pool; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Foam roof
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding and other exterior materials; Shed(s); On-site storage; Gravel/stone front

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Disposal; Dual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified vinyl frame windows; Carpet and laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.7% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,675 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 119.41%
• DSCR: 6.31
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $40,815
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.01×
• Total profit: $84,744
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $785	-5% $776	+0% $766	+5% $757	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $671	-5% $718	+0% $766	+5% $814	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $773	base $766	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $27,500 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $29,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $34,900 Active 376-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $9,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $6,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including new windows and appliances. It's move-in ready with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $29,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $34,900 ARMLS