6554 Greeley Hill Rd #22 · Greeley Hill, CA 95311

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a cute 2 bedroom / 2 bathroom cottage-style mobile home. .. Clean, cozy & comfy! You will first enter in the huge covered patio. .. walk in to the living large room windows! New appliances with new propane range, new wall furnace, new kitchen sink, new vinyl wood flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and fresh paint. This place even has a built-in China cabinet for the dining area and a large indoor laundry room. Nestled in the pine trees, this little community of homes are located 26 miles from Yosemite National Forest. So if you love fishing, camping, hiking and just nature. This is the place for you!

Key facts

• New propane range
• New wall furnace
• Huge covered patio

Tags

• HUGE COVERED PATIO
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW PROPANE RANGE
• NEW WALL FURNACE
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• NEW VINYL WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Located in Yosemite Terrace Estates

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking spaces
• Utilities: Propane tank (leased)
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (mobile home); Double wide; Faces south; Single-story
• Construction: Metal construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front yard; Side yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with tile and shower-over-tub; Other bathroom(s) with shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining area; Main entry at street level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with hookups (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,392 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.44%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $27,502
• Equity at exit: $30,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $72,438
• Equity at exit: $42,875

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95311

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $390	+0% $362	+5% $335	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $317	+0% $362	+5% $408	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $383	base $362	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$785
• After-tax cash flow: $3,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Greeley Hill

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1392
• US rank: #27320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greeley Hill, CA
• City population: 2,282
• Population (ZIP): 2,282

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 151.1386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $79,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2020): $72 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.