7938 Lake Powell Pl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$335,440

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,687 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $329k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Acadia makes entertaining easy with an open kitchen, dining area, and great room. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 58 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,440

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 7938 Lake Powell Pl, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Olympic plan); Living area approximately 1,687

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-635/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,739 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,965
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14147 Crutchfield Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,687 (0%)	2mo	$329,000	$195	85
7829 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,687 (0%)	1mo	$337,070	$200	85
14163 Crutchfield Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,687 (0%)	3mo	$322,000	$191	83
14154 Crutchfield Ct	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,687 (0%)	7mo	$328,000	$194	80
7119 Amelia River Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,680 (-0%)	5mo	$335,000	$199	68
7628 Satterfield Ter	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	2mo	$359,000	$195	65
7711 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	5mo	$329,000	$179	64
7728 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	6mo	$338,000	$184	62
7740 Gilchrist Springs Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	7mo	$339,000	$184	61
7616 Satterfield Ter	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	7mo	$349,000	$190	59
7718 Satterfield Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	1mo	$312,000	$209	59
14158 Crutchfield Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (-12%)	6mo	$313,640	$211	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-66,086
• Equity at exit: $50,015

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-94,185
• Equity at exit: $29,003

Cash invested: $93,923 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,032/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $327,783

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $63	+0% $-53	+5% $-169	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-166	+0% $-53	+5% $60	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $32	base $-53	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,860
• Closing costs: $10,063
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	5d	1	0.49mi
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	18d	1	0.63mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	25d	1	0.84mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	5d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $335,440 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,440 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,440 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,440 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,440 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,440 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,440 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,440 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,440 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,440 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,440 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,440 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,440 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,440 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,440 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,032
• − Insurance: −$1,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,753
• − Management: −$2,753
• − Depreciation: −$9,758
• Taxable loss: −$6,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B