25 Clinton Ave · Middletown, CT 06457

$170,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,761 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1917 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

POTENTIAL SHORT SALE. A single family home close to town with spacious bedrooms and living space. Plenty of storage and parking. Close to all forms of transportation, schools and shopping. Come check it out today!!

Key facts

• Close to town
• Close to schools
• Plenty of storage

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#17 in CT, #1,390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Middletown School District (urban): math 24% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #113 of 153 in CT (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Macdonough School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #318 of 553 statewide, top 60%, 227 students, 66% FRL); Middletown High School (math 25% / reading 52%, grade F, #111 of 194 statewide, top 57%, 1,214 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 147 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $403,269
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Miller St	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,552 (-12%)	18mo	$260,000	$168	46
45 Jackson St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (-1%)	22mo	$400,000	$229	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,755
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,207
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06457

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $383	+0% $335	+5% $287	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $253	+0% $335	+5% $416	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $378	base $335	+0.5pp $291	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Main St Middletown, CT	3.0	2.0	1263	$2,000	$1.58	3d	1	0.23mi
57 Ferry St Unit 1 Middletown, CT	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	11d	1	0.25mi
580 High St Middletown, CT	3.0	1.0	1466	$1,900	$1.30	3d	1	0.25mi
184 Rose Cir Middletown, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1220	$1,700	$1.39	3d	6	0.69mi
200 Main St Unit 1 Portland, CT	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,227	$1.71	11d	1	0.91mi
200 Main St Unit 1 Portland, CT	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,227	$1.71	3d	1	0.91mi
1100 Springside Ln Middletown, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1084	$3,547	$3.27	3d	21	0.96mi
85 Marlborough St Unit 426 Portland, CT	2.0	2.0	1373	$3,576	$2.60	45d	1	1.05mi
27 Woodside Cir Unit 37 Middletown, CT	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	1.21mi
131 Eastern Dr Middletown, CT	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,750	$1.21	3d	1	1.26mi
32 Wall St Unit 2 Middletown, CT	3.0	1.0	2081	$2,400	$1.15	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-09-18
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-09-13
   price $170,000
3. 2025-08-21
   price $175,000
4. 2025-08-11
   price $199,000
5. 2025-08-05
   price $230,000
6. 2025-08-01
   listed $250,000 Active
7. 2024-03-06
   historical
8. 2024-01-17
   status Under Contract
9. 2024-01-04
   status Active
10. 2023-11-23
    status Under Contract
11. 2023-11-11
    status Active
12. 2023-11-03
    status Under Contract
13. 2023-09-16
    listed $210,000 Active
14. 2023-09-12
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,050 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,050 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $1,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $3,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown School District
• NCES district ID: 0902490
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,733
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6224
• State rank: #113 of 153 in CT

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #1390

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, CT
• County: Middlesex County · 63,941 people
• City population: 46,720
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 46,720
• Household income: $79,463
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2196.0

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -470.20%
• Current HPI: 255.1597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $170,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $175,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $199,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $230,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-01-17 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2023-11-23 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2023-11-11 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2023-11-03 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2023-09-16 Listed $210,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-09-12 Coming Soon — Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,050 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.