301 Chestnut · Warren, AR 71671

$129,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1940 0.25 ac lot $49/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof approx six years old. Close to shopping.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren School District (town): math 26% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #198 of 238 in AR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Bradley County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,745
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 59.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 E Church	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,567 (-2%)	16mo	$80,000	$31	65
104 Wheeler	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,484 (-5%)	11mo	$115,000	$46	52
404 Marie Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,290 (-13%)	1mo	$215,000	$94	42
611 S Main	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,316 (-12%)	4mo	$73,500	$32	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $24,706
• Equity at exit: $47,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $74,213
• Equity at exit: $65,247

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71671

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $574/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-01-06
    listed $129,000 New Listing 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Roof approx six years old. Close to shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 44.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$574
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$387
• After-tax cash flow: $3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren School District
• NCES district ID: 0500006
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,986
• Composite: 19.22/100
• National rank: #8810
• State rank: #198 of 238 in AR

Livability — Warren

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #8546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,788

Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,347 people
• By 2030: 9,925 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 9,122 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 8,336 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 6,893 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,721 · -44.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.9% · R 69.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Current HPI: 114.1937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $129,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $574 · +286.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.