4233 N Flowing Wls #122 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is waiting for you to move in! This comfortable home features premium entry doors, a modern bathroom, as well as new brand name appliances. In the community, enjoy with your friends and family all the amenities we have to offer such as a swimming pool, a hot tub, and a clubhouse. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• PREMIUM ENTRY DOORS
• MODERN BATHROOM
• NEW BRAND NAME APPLIANCES
• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (last modified 2026-06-12)
• Financial info: List price $49,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec-built property
• Exterior features: Living area of 1024

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 bathrooms (total)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,400/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.34%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4452 N Obetka Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,079 (+5%)	5mo	$87,000	$81	64
1225 W Allegheny St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,074 (+5%)	4mo	$145,000	$135	53
1663 W Seabrooke Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+3%)	14mo	$210,000	$199	53
1273 W Allegheny St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-2%)	9mo	$159,000	$159	51
1924 W Desert Broom Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	1mo	$161,500	$175	51
1735 W Seabrooke Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+3%)	8mo	$215,000	$204	50
1218 W Allegheny St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-6%)	3mo	$195,000	$203	50
1629 W Ruth St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,077 (+5%)	5mo	$205,000	$190	49
4439 N Old Romero Rd #49	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+12%)	11mo	$45,000	$39	42
4611 N Camino Feliz	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-12%)	13mo	$125,000	$139	36
850 W Limberlost Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	911 (-11%)	14mo	$118,000	$130	35
4761 N Brookline Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	882 (-14%)	4mo	$209,900	$238	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $36,688
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $80,035
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	23d	3	0.12mi
1357 W Talisman St Tucson, AZ	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	23d	1	0.16mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	0.27mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	43d	4	0.35mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	43d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	3d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	16d	1	0.40mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	43d	5	0.41mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	43d	1	0.52mi
1132 W Knox Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1322	$1,849	$1.40	43d	1	0.53mi
4030 N Fairview Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	43d	1	0.65mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	1d	25	0.69mi
4751 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	0.71mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	43d	1	0.88mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	0.92mi
1435 W Kilburn St Apt 2102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1202	$1,495	$1.24	43d	1	0.94mi
1021 W Edgewater Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1431	$1,940	$1.36	43d	1	0.99mi
5021 N Kevy Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	1.05mi
4861 N River Vista Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	3d	1	1.07mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	43d	3	1.09mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	20d	1	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 14 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	1d	1	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,250	$1.90	1d	1	1.11mi
5077 N Fortune Teller Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1370	$1,875	$1.37	17d	1	1.12mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	43d	13	1.13mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	43d	1	1.13mi
5132 Prairie Clover Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1604	$1,897	$1.18	1d	13	1.27mi
331 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,082	$1.27	11d	2	1.28mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	43d	1	1.32mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	23d	1	1.32mi
223 W Knox Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,000	$1.37	43d	1	1.33mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	23d	1	1.38mi
156 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,535	$1.32	43d	1	1.43mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,280	$2.05	43d	1	1.46mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	16d	21	1.46mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	11d	1	1.47mi
3055 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	652	$1,099	$1.68	3d	3	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 463-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $49,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,127
• After-tax cash flow: $7,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is move-in ready with modern amenities and a clean, well-maintained appearance. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B