4233 N Flowing Wls #122 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Excellent condition $49/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.9

Listing remarks

Your brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is waiting for you to move in! This comfortable home features premium entry doors, a modern bathroom, as well as new brand name appliances. In the community, enjoy with your friends and family all the amenities we have to offer such as a swimming pool, a hot tub, and a clubhouse. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• PREMIUM ENTRY DOORS
• MODERN BATHROOM
• NEW BRAND NAME APPLIANCES
• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 4.7% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Homer Davis Elementary School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #664 of 1,109 statewide, top 60%, 411 students, 86% FRL); Flowing Wells Junior High School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 818 students, 74% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 269 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.19%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,500
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -64.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4452 N Obetka Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,079 (+5%)	8mo	$87,000	$81	61
4738 N Brookline Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+3%)	0mo	$190,000	$180	57
1225 W Allegheny St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,074 (+5%)	8mo	$145,000	$135	51
1663 W Seabrooke Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+3%)	17mo	$210,000	$199	50
1273 W Allegheny St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-2%)	12mo	$159,000	$159	49
1924 W Desert Broom Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	4mo	$161,500	$175	48
1735 W Seabrooke Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+3%)	12mo	$215,000	$204	48
1218 W Allegheny St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-6%)	6mo	$195,000	$203	48
1629 W Ruth St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,077 (+5%)	8mo	$205,000	$190	46
4439 N Old Romero Rd #49	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+12%)	14mo	$45,000	$39	40
4611 N Camino Feliz	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-12%)	16mo	$125,000	$139	33
4761 N Brookline Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	882 (-14%)	7mo	$209,900	$238	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $21,824
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $50,082
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $49,900 ($47/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +194.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $532	+0% $515	+5% $497	+10% $480
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $472	+0% $515	+5% $558	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $527	base $515	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,570	$1.43	5d	2	0.12mi
1357 W Talisman St Tucson, AZ	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	119d	1	0.16mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	139d	1	0.27mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,089	$1.74	0d	3	0.35mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,035	$1.25	4d	4	0.39mi
1215 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	885	$1,595	$1.80	0d	4	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	99d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	112d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	99d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-10 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	86d	1	0.40mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	139d	1	0.40mi
1841 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,325	$1.61	81d	1	0.48mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	139d	1	0.52mi
1132 W Knox Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1322	$1,849	$1.40	139d	1	0.53mi
1619 W Bitter Orange St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	9d	1	0.57mi
4030 N Fairview Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	139d	1	0.65mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,110	$1.80	0d	25	0.69mi
4751 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	139d	1	0.71mi
2012 W Hadley St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1497	$1,800	$1.20	9d	1	0.79mi
3742 N Fairview Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	756	$900	$1.19	0d	1	0.85mi
3521 N Flowing Wells Rd Fl 3521-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	2d	1	0.85mi
4734 N Laird Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,700	$1.41	9d	1	0.86mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	139d	1	0.88mi
1443 W Kilburn St Apt 1102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,400	$1.36	75d	1	0.91mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	139d	1	0.92mi
1311 W Wheatridge Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,725	$1.22	82d	1	0.93mi
1435 W Kilburn St Apt 2102 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1202	$1,495	$1.24	139d	1	0.94mi
1021 W Edgewater Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1431	$1,940	$1.36	139d	1	0.99mi
5021 N Kevy Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	86d	1	1.05mi
4861 N River Vista Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	86d	1	1.07mi
526 W Pelaar Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	10d	1	1.09mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$1,050	$1.56	67d	3	1.09mi
557 W Thurber Rd Unit 59 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	63d	1	1.09mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	116d	1	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 12 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,400	$2.02	71d	1	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 14 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	67d	1	1.11mi
1100 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1187	$2,250	$1.90	0d	1	1.11mi
5077 N Fortune Teller Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1370	$1,875	$1.37	113d	1	1.12mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	139d	13	1.13mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,758	$2.17	0d	19	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (last modified 2026-06-12)
• Financial info: List price $49,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec-built property
• Exterior features: Living area of 1024

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 bathrooms (total)

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-07-26
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 23 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 21 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 20 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 18 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 15 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 14 DOM
28. 2026-06-25
    days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
29. 2026-06-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 9 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    remarks 463-char remark
36. 2026-06-13
    listed $49,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $4,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is move-in ready with modern amenities and a clean, well-maintained appearance. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Homer Davis Elementary School F AZ #664/1,109 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Flowing Wells Junior High School F AZ #100/218 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Sentinel Peak High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flowing Wells Unified District (4405)
• NCES district ID: 0403010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,361
• Composite: 21.69/100
• National rank: #8271
• State rank: #143 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (last modified 2026-06-12)
• Financial info: List price $49,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec-built property
• Exterior features: Living area of 1024

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 bathrooms (total)