16101 N EL Mirage Rd #343 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$144,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $109/sqft · 71% above area ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND: Gracefully groundset 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence blends comfort and quiet sophistication. Vaulted ceilings create and open, airy feel, while plantation shutters filter ribbons of light throughout the day. A stone gas fireplace anchors the living space offering a warm sense of elegance. The kitchen is designed for both connection and function featuring granite countertops, skylight, center island and a large walkin pantry. Bedrooms are serene, well proportioned with walk in closets. Bathrooms are thoughtfully refreshed. Whisper quiet ceiling fans throughout enhance the homes composure. Generous private backyard retreat with grapevines and fruit trees. Community offers heated pool,spa,pickleball and gym. A place to settle in and feel at home.

Key facts

• Walk in closets
• Refreshed bathrooms
• Stone gas fireplace

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• STONE GAS FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,310
• List price: $144,500
• Delta: 71.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15633 N Factory St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-1%)	3mo	$332,500	$253	81
12121 W Desert Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+6%)	7mo	$335,000	$238	69
16044 N Factory St N	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+6%)	7mo	$285,000	$204	66
15633 N Greasewood St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-12%)	2mo	$305,000	$261	57
11746 W Caribbean Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-4%)	8mo	$350,000	$276	57
12132 W Caribbean Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-15%)	11mo	$360,000	$318	50
16548 N Nash St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+5%)	9mo	$345,000	$247	49
15608 N Factory St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+12%)	13mo	$300,000	$201	45
12681 W Cottonwood St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+9%)	6mo	$315,000	$218	44
15439 N Factory St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+11%)	24mo	$445,000	$301	43
15205 N Honcho Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,495 (+13%)	10mo	$350,000	$234	38
11765 W Maui Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-15%)	8mo	$355,000	$314	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,228
• Equity at exit: $21,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $29,193
• Equity at exit: $12,494

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $144,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $653	-5% $603	+0% $553	+5% $503	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $475	+0% $553	+5% $631	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $626	-0.5pp $590	base $553	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.07mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.11mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	0.32mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	45d	1	0.53mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	3d	17	0.54mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	3d	3	0.57mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	45d	1	0.71mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	25d	1	0.72mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	23d	1	0.72mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	0d	1	0.76mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	25d	1	0.76mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	45d	1	0.78mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	5d	1	0.79mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	18d	1	0.80mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	0.80mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.86mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	6d	1	0.91mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	25d	4	0.97mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.98mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	1.01mi
11425 W Pinehollow Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,100	$1.34	0d	1	1.02mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	45d	1	1.07mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	1.09mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	6d	1	1.12mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	45d	1	1.14mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,703	$2.89	0d	1	1.16mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	45d	1	1.17mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	16d	1	1.31mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	25d	1	1.31mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.38mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,695	$1.12	0d	1	1.39mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	2d	1	1.41mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	1.42mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	25d	1	1.42mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	0d	1	1.42mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	25d	1	1.43mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	6d	1	1.43mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,885	$1.30	0d	1	1.44mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	1.47mi
14944 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,171	$1.43	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,500 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,500 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,500 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,500 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,500 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,500 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,500 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,500 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,500 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,500 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,500 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,500 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $144,500 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    price $129,900 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Gracefully groundset 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence blends comfort and quiet sophistication. Vaulted ceilings create and open, airy feel, while plantation shutters filter ribbons of light throughout the day. A stone gas fireplace anchors the living space offering a warm sense of elegance. The kitchen is designed for both connection and function featuring granite countertops, skylight, center island and a large walkin pantry. Bedrooms are serene, well proportioned with walk in closets. Bathrooms are thoughtfully refreshed. Whisper quiet ceiling fans throughout enhance the homes composure. Generous private backyard retreat with grapevines and fruit trees. Community offers heated pool,spa,pickleball and gym. A place to settle in and feel at home.

17. 2026-03-16
    price $139,900 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Gracefully groundset 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence blends comfort and quiet sophistication. Vaulted ceilings create and open, airy feel, while plantation shutters filter ribbons of light throughout the day. A stone gas fireplace anchors the living space offering a warm sense of elegance. The kitchen is designed for both connection and function featuring granite countertops, skylight, center island and a large walkin pantry. Bedrooms are serene, well proportioned with walk in closets. Bathrooms are thoughtfully refreshed. Whisper quiet ceiling fans throughout enhance the homes composure. Generous private backyard retreat with grapevines and fruit trees. Community offers heated pool,spa,pickleball and gym. A place to settle in and feel at home.

18. 2026-02-09
    price $144,900 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Gracefully groundset 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence blends comfort and quiet sophistication. Vaulted ceilings create and open, airy feel, while plantation shutters filter ribbons of light throughout the day. A stone gas fireplace anchors the living space offering a warm sense of elegance. The kitchen is designed for both connection and function featuring granite countertops, skylight, center island and a large walkin pantry. Bedrooms are serene, well proportioned with walk in closets. Bathrooms are thoughtfully refreshed. Whisper quiet ceiling fans throughout enhance the homes composure. Generous private backyard retreat with grapevines and fruit trees. Community offers heated pool,spa,pickleball and gym. A place to settle in and feel at home.

19. 2026-01-13
    listed $149,900 Active 774-char remark

    Show marketing remark (774 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND: Gracefully groundset 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence blends comfort and quiet sophistication. Vaulted ceilings create and open, airy feel, while plantation shutters filter ribbons of light throughout the day. A stone gas fireplace anchors the living space offering a warm sense of elegance. The kitchen is designed for both connection and function featuring granite countertops, skylight, center island and a large walkin pantry. Bedrooms are serene, well proportioned with walk in closets. Bathrooms are thoughtfully refreshed. Whisper quiet ceiling fans throughout enhance the homes composure. Generous private backyard retreat with grapevines and fruit trees. Community offers heated pool,spa,pickleball and gym. A place to settle in and feel at home.

20. 2026-01-12
    historical
21. 2025-11-19
    price $154,800
22. 2025-11-06
    price $158,800
23. 2025-08-01
    listed $162,800 Active
24. 2025-04-18
    historical
25. 2025-03-16
    price $173,900
26. 2025-02-28
    price $176,900
27. 2025-02-19
    listed $179,900 Active
28. 2023-05-14
    historical
29. 2023-03-31
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable income: $4,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $5,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a private backyard and is located in a community with amenities. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in living room — Updates the space and improves aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in living room — Updates the space and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-48.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $144,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $154,800 ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $158,800 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $162,800 ARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-16 Price Changed $173,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $176,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2023-05-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listed $249,900 ARMLS