412 S 1st St · Rockford, IL 61104

$138,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · MultiFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1955

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Investment Alert with this quaint 2 unit duplex. This sweet little property features 2 units with 1bd, 1ba, shared laundry room, 3 car garage, lush green backyard and an inviting breezeway patio for grilling and relaxing! Great location in the Haight Village Historic District in downtown Rockford. Desirable for tenants within walking distance to many amenities, restaurants, entertainment, city market, sports factory, BMO Center, river walk, YMCA. Secure this Turn key property. (Interior photos to come. ) Call listing agent for showings.

Key facts

• Breezeway patio
• Lush green backyard
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• LUSH GREEN BACKYARD
• BREEZEWAY PATIO
• WALKING DISTANCE TO AMENITIES
• WALKING DISTANCE TO BMO CENTER
• WALKING DISTANCE TO RIVER WALK
• WALKING DISTANCE TO YMCA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $341/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,071/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 1406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.19%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $32,077
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $133,838
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61104

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 62%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,070
Total (2 units)			$2,071

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1229 S Church St Unit 2 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,300	$1.19	43d	1	0.68mi
1119 9th Ave Unit 1W Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,600	$1.39	43d	1	0.78mi
1351 7th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	43d	1	0.92mi
1231 11th Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1284	$1,450	$1.13	43d	1	0.97mi
728 N Winnebago St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.07mi
333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.24mi
1004 15th St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1267	$1,450	$1.14	21d	1	1.43mi
210 Irving Ave Rockford, IL	5.0	1.0	1202	$1,850	$1.54	43d	1	1.45mi
1519 17th Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 553-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $138,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $6,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $6,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,222
• Household income: $33,772
• Rent vs Own: 62.2% rent · 37.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.40%
• Current HPI: 233.0219
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.67%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B