3123 Bailey Ave Unit 2B · New York, NY 10463

$184,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 59 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sun-Drenched Sophistication Near Van Cortlandt Park Stop renting and start owning in this beautifully renovated, oversized 1-bedroom sanctuary. Bathed in natural light, this home features gleaming hardwood floors and a layout designed for modern living. The heart of the home is the enormous, windowed eat-in kitchen, perfect for the home chef or those who love to entertain. With abundant closet space and a pristine, well-maintained building, this is the ultimate "move-in ready" opportunity. Located just one block from the 231st St #1 train (Marble Hill), your morning commute is a breeze. Enjoy the convenience of Starbucks, Target, and local dining right at your doorstep, with the

Key facts

• One block from train
• Lush trails
• Local dining

Tags

• WINDOWED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CLOSET SPACE
• WELL-MAINTAINED BUILDING
• ONE BLOCK FROM TRAIN
• LOCAL DINING
• LUSH TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 800 sq ft (source: other)
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Cooperative ownership (Stock cooperative)

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; Parking: waitlist
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction; Year built not provided; Foundation information not provided; Roof information not provided
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 rooms total (entry level: 2)
• Flooring: Flooring information not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Steam heat; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished basement; Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,480 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.26%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $30,873
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $149,076
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $868	-5% $804	+0% $741	+5% $677	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $540	-5% $640	+0% $741	+5% $842	+10% $942
Rate	-1.0pp $834	-0.5pp $788	base $741	+0.5pp $693	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	23d	3	0.68mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $184,000 Active
15. 2022-07-13
    historical
16. 2021-08-05
    status Pending
17. 2021-06-02
    price $160,000
18. 2021-05-12
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,446
• − Management: −$2,446
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable income: $6,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $7,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready, renovated 1-bedroom condo is located near Van Cortlandt Park and offers modern amenities and natural light.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Replace the fire escapes — Improves safety and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace the fire escapes — Improves safety and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $184,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-02 Price Changed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-12 Listed $170,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid