34796 Robins Song Rd · Wesley Chapel, FL 33541

$206,300

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Walk-in shower
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $206,300

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family spec home (Lincoln plan); Address: 34796 Robins Song Rd, Zephyrhills, FL 33541
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,575

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active listing (spec home, Lincoln plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,922 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,300
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4618 Newcomb Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-13%)	6mo	$115,000	$84	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,813
• Equity at exit: $30,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-32,264
• Equity at exit: $17,837

Cash invested: $57,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,082
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$258 /mo · $3,094/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $206,300

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $253	+0% $181	+5% $110	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $101	+0% $181	+5% $262	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $234	base $181	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,575
• Closing costs: $6,189
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34796 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,799	$1.14	20d	1	0.02mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	6d	1	0.08mi
34873 Robins Song Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,749	$1.11	3d	1	0.10mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	18d	1	0.15mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	11d	1	0.19mi
5224 Braddock Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,150	$1.03	25d	1	0.20mi
34325 Smart Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,065	$1.37	4d	1	0.26mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	25d	1	0.69mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	6d	1	0.74mi
34218 Cinder Way Unit 34218 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,950	$1.24	0d	1	0.74mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	25d	1	0.77mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	13d	71	0.84mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	25d	1	0.94mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	25d	1	0.96mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	3d	46	1.05mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	5d	1	1.07mi
5912 Bramble Bush Ct Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2243	$2,595	$1.16	6d	1	1.07mi
5686 Barakat Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,300	$1.26	25d	1	1.22mi
5686 Barakat Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,250	$1.21	15d	1	1.22mi
36618 Goffaux Loop Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,115	$1.15	18d	1	1.23mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,360	$2.23	0d	13	1.23mi
35138 Meadow Reach Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,500	$1.59	25d	1	1.24mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,201	$2.13	0d	22	1.28mi
34835 Redding Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	2d	1	1.32mi
5137 Benjamin Eric St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,050	$1.25	0d	1	1.34mi
34885 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,029	$1.26	13d	1	1.47mi
34933 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,875	$1.33	15d	1	1.47mi
6248 Hidden Creek Blvd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1803	$1,737	$0.96	0d	9	1.48mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $206,300 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,094
• − Insurance: −$1,032
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − Depreciation: −$6,001
• Taxable loss: −$1,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$283
• After-tax cash flow: $2,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B