5404 Mulvey St · Houston, TX 77020

$358,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Land · 146 Days on market

Built 2025 2,378 sqft lot $179/sqft · 19% above area Est $303k · 19% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5404 Mulvey St, a stunning new construction by Parra Homes, one of the pioneering builders helping shape the transformation of Houston’s Fifth Ward. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers first-floor living with an open layout, a private driveway & gated front yard. Inside, discover a bright kitchen with quartz countertops, two-tone flat-panel European-style cabinetry, soft-close drawers, stainless steel appliances & a large picture-frame window filling the space with natural light. Durable LVP flooring runs throughout—scratch- & water-resistant with zero carpet. The living area opens through sliding glass doors to a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs features an office nook ideal for remote work & a spacious primary suite with vaulted ceilings, a seating area, spa-like bath with floating vanities, soaking tub & frameless shower. Conveniently located minutes from Downtown & East River. No HOA & one of the best values for new construction in the area.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• Private driveway

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• GATED FRONT YARD
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TWO-TONE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,546/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,626 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,835
• List price: $358,900
• Delta: 18.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $191,234
• Equity at exit: $323,326

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $575,617
• Equity at exit: $697,264

Cash invested: $100,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,882
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $338,519

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,725
• Closing costs: $10,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	3d	1	0.09mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.09mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	0.11mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.38mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.38mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	44d	1	0.43mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.71mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.75mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	5d	1	0.79mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	0.86mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	1.09mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	1.09mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.21mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	1.41mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	1.41mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.42mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $358,900 Pending 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $358,900 Pending 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $358,900 Pending 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $358,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $358,900 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $358,900 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $358,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $358,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $358,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-01-21
    listed $358,900 Active 1039-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

    Welcome to 5404 Mulvey St, a stunning new construction by Parra Homes, one of the pioneering builders helping shape the transformation of Houston’s Fifth Ward. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers first-floor living with an open layout, a private driveway & gated front yard. Inside, discover a bright kitchen with quartz countertops, two-tone flat-panel European-style cabinetry, soft-close drawers, stainless steel appliances & a large picture-frame window filling the space with natural light. Durable LVP flooring runs throughout—scratch- & water-resistant with zero carpet. The living area opens through sliding glass doors to a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs features an office nook ideal for remote work & a spacious primary suite with vaulted ceilings, a seating area, spa-like bath with floating vanities, soaking tub & frameless shower. Conveniently located minutes from Downtown & East River. No HOA & one of the best values for new construction in the area.

11. 2025-08-27
    historical
12. 2025-08-04
    price $359,900
13. 2025-07-21
    price $369,900
14. 2025-07-04
    listed $379,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,568 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,425/yr (+$452/mo · 474.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,104
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$1,794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − Depreciation: −$10,441
• Taxable loss: −$7,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $358,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed $379,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.