G12 Plan · Chandler, TX 75758

$214,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

Good condition $105/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- FULLY LOADED™ Conaway Home - Solid concrete foundation - 9 foot raised ceilings throughout - Moisture controlling house wrap - HERS rated energy efficient home - Low-E, tilt-sash vinyl windows - R-38 insulated ceilings - Energy saving appliances - 14 SEER air conditioning unit - 1, 2 & 6 year builder warranty - Plus much more. ..

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 302 days

Tags

• SOLID CONCRETE FOUNDATION
• LOW E TILT SASH VINYL WINDOWS
• R-38 INSULATED CEILINGS
• ENERGY SAVING APPLIANCES
• 14 SEER AIR CONDITIONING UNIT

🏗️ New construction. The $214,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,739.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#347 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 345 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,739
• List price: $214,990
• Delta: -11.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Walnut St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+4%)	2mo	$280,000	$215	71
544 Cherry St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-3%)	1mo	$195,000	$161	59
1005 Ripplewood Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+4%)	21mo	$236,990	$183	58
1107 River Oaks Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+4%)	23mo	$245,490	$190	53
508 River Oaks Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+4%)	21mo	$251,990	$195	53
1209 Ripplewood Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+4%)	23mo	$250,490	$194	52
106 Walnut St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (-10%)	17mo	$209,000	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-55,535
• Equity at exit: $36,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-69,170
• Equity at exit: $20,901

Cash invested: $67,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $236,995 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,268
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,626/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,248

Max offer price $204,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-175	+0% $-258	+5% $-342	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-334	+0% $-258	+5% $-183	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-197	base $-258	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,435
• Closing costs: $7,252
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Kidd Dr Unit 1B Chandler, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	0.04mi
1008 N River Oaks Ln Chandler, TX	4.0	2.0	1706	$2,295	$1.35	154d	1	0.45mi
513 Second St Chandler, TX	2.0	2.0	1314	$1,350	$1.03	7d	1	0.67mi
111 Cedar Ln Chandler, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,345	$0.95	9d	1	0.80mi
917 Martin St Chandler, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,195	$1.22	47d	1	1.31mi
989 Martin St Chandler, TX	4.0	2.0	1379	$1,825	$1.32	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $214,990 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $214,990 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $214,990 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $214,990 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $214,990 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $214,990 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $214,990 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $214,990 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $214,990 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $214,990 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $214,990 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $214,990 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $214,990 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $214,990 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $214,990 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $214,990 Active 287 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $214,990 Active 286 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $214,990 Active 285 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $214,990 Active 284 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $214,990 Active 283 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $214,990 Active 282 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $214,990 Active 281 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $214,990 Active 280 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $214,990 Active 279 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $214,990 Active 278 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $214,990 Active 277 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $214,990 Active 276 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $214,990 Active 275 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $214,990 Active 274 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $214,990 Active 273 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $214,990 Active 272 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $214,990 Active 271 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $214,990 Active 270 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $214,990 Active 269 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $214,990 Active 268 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $214,990 Active 267 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $214,990 Active 266 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $214,990 Active 265 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $214,990 Active 264 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $214,990 Active 263 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $214,990 Active 262 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $214,990 Active 261 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $214,990 Active 260 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $214,990 Active 259 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,990 Active 258 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,990 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $214,990 Active 256 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $214,990 Active 255 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $214,990 Active 254 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $214,990 Active 253 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,541
• − Property taxes: −$3,626
• − Insurance: −$1,209
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$7,032
• Taxable loss: −$7,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,250–$18,750 screening

This home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and systems, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chandler El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Brownsboro J H C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Brownsboro H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #7634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, TX
• County: Henderson · 80,471 people
• Population (ZIP): 10,357
• Household income: $58,587
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Listed $249,990 Zillow