7727 Cypress St · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$59,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 667 sqft · Other · 19 Days on market

Built 1970 0.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Looking for a project with personality? This oversized, cleared lot comes with a head start. An existing manufactured home sits on the property along with well, septic, and power already in place, giving you the rare chance to revive, rebuild, or reimagine something truly your own. It needs TLC, but that’s where the opportunity lives. Handyman special? Absolutely. Investor alert? Even better. A gated driveway leads you onto the property, and if you’re dreaming bigger, two adjoining parcels are also available, opening the door to expanded space, multi-lot ownership, or future development potential. All of this sits in the heart of the Keyst

Key facts

• Spring fed lakes
• Top rated schools
• Gated driveway

Tags

• OVERSIZED CLEARED LOT
• GATED DRIVEWAY
• TWO ADJOINING PARCELS
• SPRING FED LAKES
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS
• TOP RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Total lot about 0.64 acres (approximately 1/2 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Septic tank (sewer)
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-wide; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: No patio or porch; Cleared lot; Oak trees on property; Dirt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keystone Heights Elementary (math 77% / reading 70%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 803 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $60k implies a 347% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.18%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $25,191
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $66,921
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $886/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $565	+0% $548	+5% $531	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $452	-5% $500	+0% $548	+5% $596	+10% $644
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $563	base $548	+0.5pp $532	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $59,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $59,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-22
   price $59,900
5. 2026-04-21
   listed $599,000 Active
6. 2000-10-13
   soldstatus $13,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$886
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $5,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $5,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+347.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $13,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $886 · +77.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.