1939 Ashton Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28304

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1965 10,019 sqft lot Est $215k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM 2 BATH RANCH HOME.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-415/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherwood Park Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,410 statewide, top 86%, 279 students, 99% FRL); Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 12481% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $195k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,046 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2167 Quail Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+0%)	2mo	$205,000	$144	83
4251 Knollwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-1%)	4mo	$275,000	$196	78
2502 Nobie St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+5%)	4mo	$205,000	$137	72
1810 Ashton Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,348 (-5%)	2mo	$204,900	$152	69
1953 Glenwick Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-4%)	6mo	$230,000	$168	66
4823 Old Field Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+4%)	5mo	$215,000	$146	65
4604 Sterling St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-9%)	4mo	$207,500	$161	61
4737 Dominion Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+10%)	7mo	$150,000	$97	58
2175 Quailridge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-15%)	5mo	$189,800	$157	57
4627 Cheltenham Rd	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,568 (+11%)	0mo	$228,000	$145	48
2205 Stornoway Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+8%)	6mo	$255,000	$166	48
1933 Saint Paul Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+14%)	6mo	$130,000	$81	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,534
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,933
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28304

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,341/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $188,887

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $21	+0% $-35	+5% $-90	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-98	+0% $-35	+5% $29	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $15	base $-35	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	0.22mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	15d	1	0.27mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	25d	1	0.27mi
1819 Cawdor Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,600	$1.02	15d	1	0.65mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	25d	1	0.71mi
5532 Robmont Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1301	$1,800	$1.38	15d	1	0.86mi
2207 Puffin Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,950	$1.61	15d	1	0.94mi
2579 Gotts Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	23d	1	0.97mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	15d	1	0.97mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	25d	1	0.97mi
2517 Forest Lodge Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	25d	1	1.03mi
2690 Belhaven Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1264	$1,350	$1.07	25d	1	1.06mi
3918 Donna St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	1.09mi
4101 Coventry Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,150	$1.02	15d	1	1.11mi
1805 Wayne Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	975	$2,400	$2.46	25d	1	1.14mi
3038 Walesby Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,650	$1.30	25d	1	1.19mi
5629 Thackeray Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,725	$1.12	25d	1	1.19mi
1209 Snowy Egret Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	1.22mi
2219 Gray Goose Loop Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1799	$1,900	$1.06	23d	1	1.28mi
5632 Birch Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,250	$1.02	25d	1	1.30mi
3325 Boone Trl Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,960	$1.31	15d	1	1.33mi
5721 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,575	$1.50	25d	1	1.40mi
909 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1346	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	1.44mi
5744 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,395	$1.19	25d	1	1.46mi
821 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	1.46mi
3526 Furman Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,500	$1.43	25d	1	1.46mi
910 Miller Ave Unit 910 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	1.47mi
5595 Quietwood Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,395	$1.08	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 583-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $195,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,341 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,341 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,341
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 37,140
• Household income: $58,563
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1667.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.90%
• Current HPI: 215.927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+202.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $195,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-02-23 Rental Removed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $1,450 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $1,495 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2014-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) $87,000 LPRMLS
• 2014-08-11 Listed $87,500 LPRMLS
• 1992-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,341 · +43.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.