3833 Turnpike Rd · Portsmouth, VA 23701

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1935 0.86 ac lot Est $304k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Cape Cod with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths offering a cozy feel and everyday convenience. Minutes from the casino, TCC, dining, and easy interstate access.

Key facts

• 0.86 acre lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.6% in Portsmouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Portsmouth City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #107 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglass Park Elementary (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 550 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 60% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Portsmouth City Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 300 units permitted in Portsmouth city in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $199k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,324 (1.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,051
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2208 Colorado Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (-1%)	1mo	$319,900	$224	81
4020 Greenway Ct W	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,437 (-0%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	77
83 Wyoming Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$196	74
4013 Greenway Ct W	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,533 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$179	70
94 Kansas Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$211	69
83 Oregon Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,276 (-12%)	1mo	$269,000	$211	66
3720 Turnpike Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-13%)	1mo	$281,000	$223	65
104 Oregon Ave	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,515 (+5%)	1mo	$284,900	$188	64
3209 Arlington Pl	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$291,000	$208	53
289 Choate St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	1mo	$303,000	$202	53
266 Hansen Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-14%)	0mo	$293,000	$236	52
173 Noble St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	0mo	$325,000	$250	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,044
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $55,715
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23701

• Rents YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,574/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Radford St Portsmouth, VA	4.0	3.0	1651	$2,550	$1.54	3d	1	0.38mi
3717 Scott St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1157	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	0.64mi
3401 Brighton St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1439	$2,195	$1.53	3d	1	0.66mi
207 Falcon Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$3,000	$1.74	44d	1	0.71mi
3607 Bart St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	11d	1	0.87mi
3626 Bart St Unit BAR3626-DF Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	8d	1	0.89mi
3317 Downes St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,995	$1.74	11d	1	0.94mi
3317 Downes St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,995	$1.74	3d	1	0.94mi
2715 Portsmouth Blvd Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1428	$1,425	$1.00	15d	1	0.94mi
2715 Portsmouth Blvd Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1428	$1,425	$1.00	17d	1	0.94mi
70 Manly St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.99mi
251 Independence St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1294	$2,550	$1.97	24d	1	1.04mi
213 Beacon Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,300	$1.80	24d	1	1.12mi
26 Byers Ave Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,575	$1.56	44d	1	1.15mi
2750 Greenwood Dr Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	24d	1	1.16mi
300 Russell St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1534	$2,250	$1.47	24d	1	1.19mi
21 DeKalb Ave Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	984	$1,550	$1.58	44d	1	1.24mi
804 City Park Ave Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,800	$1.47	44d	1	1.24mi
3724 Deep Creek Blvd Unit 3754 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	12d	1	1.30mi
3724 Deep Creek Blvd Unit 3728 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	1.30mi
35 Fairview Cir S Portsmouth, VA	4.0	1.5	1462	$2,100	$1.44	12d	1	1.34mi
3310 Glasgow St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	1.34mi
98 Francis St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	2.0	984	$1,395	$1.42	15d	1	1.37mi
102 Francis St #98 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,395	$1.40	16d	1	1.38mi
816 Martin Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	3d	1	1.43mi
2304 Nashville Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1226	$1,395	$1.14	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-23
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2023-06-28
   status Under Contract
4. 2023-05-30
   listed $198,000 Active
5. 2004-07-27
   soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,574 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,574 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,574
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $2,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portsmouth City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103000
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,152
• Composite: 39.01/100
• National rank: #4071
• State rank: #107 of 131 in VA

Livability — Portsmouth

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #5381

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portsmouth, VA
• County: Portsmouth City · 96,366 people
• City population: 96,366
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,298
• Household income: $62,349
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Portsmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 96,730 people
• By 2030: 96,760 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 96,573 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 95,606 · -1.2%
• By 2075: 93,579 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 83,756 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 39% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Portsmouth

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.6) · D 68.6% · R 30.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 39.3pp · 2024: 38.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.6 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+36.5 2012: D+39.6 2008: D+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.96%
• Current HPI: 310.8218
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.92%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+55.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $199,000 REINMLS
• 2023-06-28 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-05-30 Listed $198,000 REINMLS
• 2004-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,574 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.