6230 N Victory Dr · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$539,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2015 7,405 sqft lot $477/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Breathtaking water view and sunsets. Seller welcomes all offers! SELLER IS ALSO INCLUDING A GOLF CART! This home has many upgrades and is move in ready. Enter through a beautiful front door with impact glass and you're greeted with stunning tile floors throughout, soaring ceilings, elegant crown molding and rounded corner walls in warm neutral tones. This thoughtfully designed open floor plan features a gorgeous kitchen equipped with upgraded appliances, pristine cabinets and sleek granite countertops and a Kinetico Drinking Water System. Additional features include a newly installed A/C unit in 2024, upgraded "picture window" lanai screens for incredible sunset views and a spac

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Soaring ceilings
• Stunning tile floors

Tags

• IMPACT GLASS FRONT DOOR
• STUNNING TILE FLOORS
• SOARING CEILINGS
• CROWN MOLDING
• ROUNDED CORNER WALLS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in a community development district; Restrictions: no commercial and no RV
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees listed; Directions and possession: available at closing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Professional management; Quarterly HOA fees; Master HOA fee collected quarterly; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, fitness center, golf (public, non-equity), tennis, pickleball, basketball, bocce, putting green, bike/jog paths, dog park, playground, restaurant, salon, library, billiards, hobby room, extra storage, BBQ/picnic areas, sidewalks and streetlights; Community types: golf course and tennis

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking; 2+ parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Impact-resistant doors; Impact-resistant windows; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Partial-house reverse osmosis; Central sewer; Cable available; Central electric power
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (ranch); Rear exposure faces south; Residential property in Ave Maria
• Construction: Built in 2015; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Double-hung windows
• Exterior features: Patio; Pond; Room for pool; Automatic sprinkler system; Tennis court; Across from waterfront; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Cooktop (electric); Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator/freezer; Reverse osmosis; Wine cooler
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus a den; First-floor bedroom; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bar; Built-in cabinets; Coffered ceiling; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Tray ceiling; Walk-in closet; Den / study; Guest bath; Guest room; Home office; Screened lanai/porch; Island kitchen; Breakfast bar and breakfast room; Dining/living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,391/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,095 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-72,667
• Equity at exit: $128,862

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-60,428
• Equity at exit: $134,255

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,110/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$477
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$922
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,005

Max offer price $453,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-333	+0% $-485	+5% $-638	+10% $-790
Rent	-10% $-832	-5% $-659	+0% $-485	+5% $-312	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-348	base $-485	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	24d	1	0.11mi
6421 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$5,800	$3.02	24d	1	0.11mi
6140 Victory Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2496	$5,000	$2.00	24d	1	0.23mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	24d	1	0.33mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	24d	1	0.39mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	24d	1	0.66mi
5728 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2087	$2,650	$1.27	24d	1	0.68mi
5709 Constitution St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	24d	1	0.70mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	24d	1	0.76mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	24d	1	0.83mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	24d	1	0.88mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	24d	1	0.89mi
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	14d	1	0.89mi
5939 Gala Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$5,995	$2.61	24d	1	0.90mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	24d	1	0.95mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	24d	1	0.98mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	22d	1	1.27mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	24d	1	1.28mi
6075 Artisan Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$11,995	$4.29	22d	1	1.31mi
6082 Artisan Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$11,995	$4.29	22d	1	1.36mi
5689 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2529	$2,350	$0.93	14d	1	1.37mi
5693 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$2,500	$0.99	14d	1	1.37mi
5657 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1981	$2,400	$1.21	14d	1	1.37mi
5661 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	14d	1	1.37mi
5637 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2529	$2,350	$0.93	14d	1	1.37mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	1.39mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	24d	1	1.39mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	24d	1	1.39mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	24d	1	1.39mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	24d	1	1.39mi
6003 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2395	$11,995	$5.01	24d	1	1.40mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	24d	1	1.45mi
6023 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2379	$4,995	$2.10	24d	1	1.46mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	24d	1	1.47mi
5573 Cobalto Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	1.47mi
5573 Cobalto Way Unit 5573 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	1.47mi
5474 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,650	$1.30	24d	1	1.49mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	22d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $477 · $5,724/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,000 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,000 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $539,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $539,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $539,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $539,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $539,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-02-04
    price $539,000
15. 2026-01-05
    listed $579,000 Active
16. 2025-11-08
    historical
17. 2025-11-02
    listed $560,000 Active
18. 2025-10-22
    historical
19. 2025-04-16
    listed $585,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,110 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,110 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$5,110
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,215
• − Management: −$4,215
• − HOA: −$5,724
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$15,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $539,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $579,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $560,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $585,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,110 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.