1837 N Thornton Rd #45 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured · 248 Days on market

Built 2022 3,640 sqft lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Courtesy Listing for MGN Homes - Michelle Traphagan, Sales * Located in Sundance 2, in the Sundance 1 RV Resort 55+ Community. Features: 2 BEDROOM, 1 BATH ^ 9' CEILINGS ^ 39'' OVERHEAD CABINETS ^ 4 UPGRADED ^ APPLIANCES ^ LED RECESSED LIGHTING IN KITCHEN ^ STACKABLE WASHER & DRYER - updated 2023 ^ CEILING FANS / LIGHTS WALK IN SHOWER ^ VINYL PLANK FLOORING ^ ISLAND IN KITCHEN ^ NEW HARDWARE IN BATHROOM -updated in 2024 ^ LAMINTATE COUNTER TOPS UNFURNISHED ^ 674 SF with Porch EXTERIOR: EAST FACING, CORNER LOT ^ 18' X 54' DOUBLE DRIVE ^ 18' X 44' DOUBLE AWNING 10' X 12' WIRED SHED ^ WHITE VINYL DUAL GLAZE LOW E WIND ^ IRRIGATION SYSTEM ^ HEAT PUMP ^ GUTTERS ON NON-AWNING SIDE ^

Key facts

• 3,640 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: N on Thornton to 3rd entrance on the left (or Sundance 2)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: Land lease with monthly fee; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Community media room; Community laundry and coin-operated laundry; Fitness center; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road; Private maintained road
• Construction: Cement siding with wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front and rear with auto timers; Gravel/stone front and back; Partial fencing (see remarks); Other exterior features; Heated spa; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Master bedroom on main level; Dual-pane windows; Storage; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Elementary School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,109 statewide, top 96%, 451 students, 89% FRL); Casa Grande Middle School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 218 statewide, top 91%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,094
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,518
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $83	+0% $31	+5% $-21	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-22	+0% $31	+5% $84	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $69	base $31	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 W 12th St Unit F Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	745	$1,500	$2.01	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    price $149,900
17. 2026-02-06
    price $154,900
18. 2026-01-13
    price $164,900
19. 2025-12-16
    price $169,500
20. 2025-11-12
    price $175,000
21. 2025-10-16
    listed $177,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$514
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $164,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $169,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $177,500 ARMLS