15433 Glinton Farm Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$269,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Two-Story Living with LVP Flooring, No Back Neighbors, and First-Floor Guest Suite The Magellan is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,260 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. One bedroom and a full bath are located on the first floor, ideal for guests or flexible living. The open-concept main level features LVP flooring throughout the main living areas and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances, creating a seamless flow for entertaining and daily life. Upstairs includes a spacious game room and a private primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath. W

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($512); Association name: TBD

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Granite counters; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (16 x 13); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub/shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $442,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,832 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.77%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6002 Mercer St	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	0mo	$291,000	$129	95
17421 Fm 1484 Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-3%)	14mo	$429,000	$196	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-162,416
• Equity at exit: $66,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.22×
• Total profit: $-275,026
• Equity at exit: $38,299

Cash invested: $124,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,644/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-1,320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,929

Max offer price $251,936

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,014	-5% $-1,167	+0% $-1,320	+5% $-1,473	+10% $-1,626
Rent	-10% $-1,499	-5% $-1,409	+0% $-1,320	+5% $-1,231	+10% $-1,142
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,097	-0.5pp $-1,207	base $-1,320	+0.5pp $-1,435	+1.0pp $-1,552

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,740
• Closing costs: $13,289
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	1.44mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	2d	15	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-27
   price $269,990
9. 2026-05-27
   listed $300,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,813
• − Property taxes: −$6,644
• − Insurance: −$2,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$12,886
• Taxable loss: −$24,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Consider painting the exterior and interior, updating the flooring and appliances, and adding smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old tile with a more modern material can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Integrating smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old tile with a more modern material can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Integrating smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $300,500 HARMLS