438 2nd St · Toledo, OH 43605

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1917 3,000 sqft lot $59/sqft · 10% above area Est $50k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

East Toledo 3 bed 1 bath full basement 2 story. Close to downtown, International Park, and new Metroparks. Great Investment Opportunity with your repairs!

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 7.5% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.78%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,804
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: 10.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 E Broadway St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	919 (-2%)	8mo	$67,000	$73	64
622 Church St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (+1%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	61
150 E Broadway St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+12%)	1mo	$20,000	$19	57
450 Yondota St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,017 (+9%)	11mo	$80,000	$79	54
328 White St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+7%)	1mo	$39,900	$40	52
124 Maryland Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	842 (-10%)	3mo	$40,000	$48	48
1012 Idaho St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,041 (+11%)	0mo	$84,900	$82	47
216 Licking St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+7%)	10mo	$99,000	$99	47
319 White St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	848 (-9%)	4mo	$40,000	$47	44
255 Maryland Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (-10%)	9mo	$49,500	$59	42
1206 Greenwood Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+13%)	9mo	$72,000	$68	41
1133 Nevada St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+12%)	4mo	$36,000	$34	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $24,564
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $72,431
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43605

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $464

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $500	+0% $484	+5% $468	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $441	+0% $484	+5% $526	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $498	base $484	+0.5pp $470	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
470 2nd St Unit 1 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$799	$0.84	44d	1	0.06mi
625 Riverside Dr Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,767	$2.05	15d	37	0.38mi
653 Oswald St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	920	$800	$0.87	44d	1	0.42mi
1305 Mott Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	44d	1	0.62mi
200 N St Clair St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$2,550	$3.05	15d	15	0.65mi
1123 Nevada St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	792	$900	$1.14	15d	1	0.67mi
221 Licking St Unit 2 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1048	$1,099	$1.05	24d	1	0.71mi
834 Oak St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1064	$900	$0.85	44d	1	0.75mi
513 Adams St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	1175	$1,424	$1.21	15d	11	0.78mi
128 Carbon St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,200	$1.08	24d	1	0.79mi
223 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1098	$1,099	$1.00	24d	1	0.80mi
724 Plymouth St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	819	$750	$0.92	44d	1	0.84mi
1119 N Summit St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,750	$1.71	15d	2	0.85mi
557 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	848	$1,100	$1.30	44d	1	0.89mi
251 Graham St Apt A Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	625	$850	$1.36	44d	1	0.89mi
946 Butler St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	944	$650	$0.69	44d	1	0.92mi
626 Walnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1088	$995	$0.91	44d	1	0.92mi
950 Oak St Unit 1 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	44d	1	0.94mi
948 White St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,135	$1.11	15d	1	1.01mi
508 Howland Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	840	$1,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.02mi
571 Howland Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	874	$875	$1.00	44d	1	1.07mi
630 Mulberry St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	24d	1	1.11mi
332 14th St Unit 303 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,000	$0.96	44d	1	1.21mi
322 14th St Apt 203 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1065	$1,000	$0.94	15d	1	1.22mi
2074 Starr Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,025	$0.92	24d	1	1.25mi
1205 Liberty St Unit NA Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	44d	1	1.34mi
21 Magyar St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	680	$1,050	$1.54	44d	1	1.40mi
426 Beacon St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	809	$882	$1.09	15d	10	1.40mi
1848 Genesee St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,200	$1.12	44d	1	1.42mi
1848 Genesee St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,300	$1.22	24d	1	1.42mi
722 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	15d	1	1.48mi
732 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	968	$1,145	$1.18	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $59,900 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    East Toledo 3 bed 1 bath full basement 2 story. Close to downtown, International Park, and new Metroparks. Great Investment Opportunity with your repairs!

18. 2026-04-16
    historical $59,900 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    East Toledo 3 bed 1 bath full basement 2 story. Close to downtown, International Park, and new Metroparks. Great Investment Opportunity with your repairs!

19. 2025-10-14
    price $28,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    NEWER KITCHEN, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, FRESHLY PAINTED, ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH, E-Z TO SHOW. MOVE IN AT CLOSING, 1.5 CAR GARAGE

20. 2009-04-25
    historical
21. 2009-01-24
    listed $22,900
22. 2000-09-07
    soldstatus $28,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    NEWER KITCHEN, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, FRESHLY PAINTED, ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH, E-Z TO SHOW. MOVE IN AT CLOSING, 1.5 CAR GARAGE

23. 2000-04-13
    listed $32,900 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    NEWER KITCHEN, NEW FLOOR IN KITCHEN, FRESHLY PAINTED, ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH, E-Z TO SHOW. MOVE IN AT CLOSING, 1.5 CAR GARAGE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $666 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $761 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $5,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $4,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 24,441
• Household income: $39,118
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1257.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 14% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.85%
• Current HPI: 138.6894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+82.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $59,900 NORIS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $59,900 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $28,000 NORIS
• 2009-04-25 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2009-01-24 Listed $22,900 NORIS
• 2000-09-07 Sold (MLS) $28,000 NORIS
• 2000-04-13 Listed $32,900 NORIS

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.