7918 31st St · Rosedale, MD 21237

$184,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1957 7,500 sqft lot Est $345k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property subject to third-party approval. Cash or Hard Money only. Single-family home located in the Rosedale Farm community. Sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS; seller will make no repairs. Property features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Main level includes a kitchen, living room, separate dining room, and a family room with a fireplace. Partially finished lower level offers an additional room and a full bath.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Separate dining room
• Living room

Tags

• ROSEDALE FARM COMMUNITY
• KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.9% in Rosedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#37 in MD, #1,338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,925
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8022 Neighbors Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,576 (+0%)	6mo	$365,000	$232	72
8007 Sagramore Rd	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,692 (+7%)	2mo	$370,000	$219	68
8004 Neighbors Ave	0.32mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,507 (-4%)	13mo	$320,000	$212	62
8029 Neighbors Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (+7%)	2mo	$339,000	$200	60
7927 Underhill Rd	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,745 (+11%)	10mo	$335,000	$192	57
7932 Philadelphia Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (+10%)	2mo	$360,000	$207	53
7403 South Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+4%)	7mo	$370,000	$227	51
7 Weyhill Ct	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,668 (+6%)	10mo	$330,000	$198	48
8020 Neighbors Ave	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,759 (+12%)	8mo	$360,000	$205	46
8223 Analee Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-10%)	9mo	$325,000	$230	45
5418 Hamilton Ave	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,663 (+6%)	19mo	$367,000	$221	41
5217 Mccormick Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+14%)	10mo	$464,900	$258	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,874
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $81,022
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21237

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,096/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $648	+0% $595	+5% $543	+10% $491
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $500	+0% $595	+5% $690	+10% $785
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $642	base $595	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8006 Woodhaven Ct Rosedale, MD	4.0	3.0	1680	$3,200	$1.90	25d	1	0.26mi
1732 Chesaco Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,295	$1.82	45d	1	0.28mi
2009 Longview Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,500	$2.35	16d	1	0.52mi
8212 Dorset Ave Rosedale, MD	4.0	1.5	1479	$2,250	$1.52	45d	1	0.58mi
8133 Bartholomew Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	25d	1	0.59mi
5248 Darien Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1584	$2,100	$1.33	45d	1	0.69mi
5253 Cedgate Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	0.73mi
5611 Force Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.90mi
5676 Utrecht Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,195	$1.65	0d	1	0.91mi
4905 Greencrest Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	45d	1	0.92mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	17d	1	1.01mi
5307 Valiquet Ave Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1672	$1,375	$0.82	45d	1	1.05mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	25d	1	1.25mi
6512 Golden Ring Rd Rosedale, MD	4.0	3.0	1089	$2,800	$2.57	17d	1	1.29mi
32 Tameron Pl Rosedale, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	3d	1	1.40mi
6709 Havenoak Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	797	$1,765	$2.21	0d	10	1.43mi
5938 Clayton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	17d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,096 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,096 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,096
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $4,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $6,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Rosedale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1338

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosedale, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 30,851
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 31,425
• Household income: $91,693
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 887.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, India, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.40%
• Current HPI: 242.8057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,096 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.