3020 E 3rd St · Dayton, OH 45403

$224,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,390 sqft · MultiFamily · 219 Days on market

Built 1922 Poor condition 3,646 sqft lot $42/sqft · 9% below area Est $246k · 9% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

AGENT OWNED 3020 - 3030 E Third St (Parcels R72-04705-0002 and R72-04705-0003) offer limitless possibilities for investors. Full extensive rehab required. Three apartments upstairs and two store fronts along a very busy E Third St. Selling "as is". Utilize ShowingTime for showings.

Key facts

• 3,646 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 219 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $224k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $224k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,181/mo this rent would consume 162% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1071% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $197,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.69%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,807
• List price: $224,000
• Delta: -8.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $129,599
• Equity at exit: $33,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $337,405
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45403

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 16.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,088
• Net cashflow: $2,545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 46%

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1.5	$3,309
▸ 2× units	1	0.5	$1,872
Total (5 units)			$5,181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Rita St Unit 33 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	4794	$895	$0.19	23d	1	1.17mi
35 Rita St Unit 35 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	4794	$895	$0.19	14d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 201 DOM
16. 2025-12-12
    price $224,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    AGENT OWNED 3020 - 3030 E Third St (Parcels R72-04705-0002 and R72-04705-0003) offer limitless possibilities for investors. Full extensive rehab required. Three apartments upstairs and two store fronts along a very busy E Third St. Selling "as is". Utilize ShowingTime for showings.

17. 2025-11-11
    listed $225,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    AGENT OWNED 3020 - 3030 E Third St (Parcels R72-04705-0002 and R72-04705-0003) offer limitless possibilities for investors. Full extensive rehab required. Three apartments upstairs and two store fronts along a very busy E Third St. Selling "as is". Utilize ShowingTime for showings.

18. 2025-09-13
    historical
19. 2025-08-26
    price $249,000
20. 2025-08-19
    status Active
21. 2025-08-10
    status Pending
22. 2025-06-23
    price $269,000
23. 2025-05-21
    price $289,000
24. 2025-05-13
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,974
• − Management: −$4,974
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable income: $28,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,883
• After-tax cash flow: $23,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive structural repairs and HVAC updates to stabilize the building and improve its safety and functionality. Significant value can be added through these repairs and improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major structural repairs — Severe structural damage
• Major ceiling repairs — Exposed structural elements
• Major HVAC repairs — Debris and structural damage
• Major exterior repairs — Exposed brick and debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both structural repairs — Stabilizing the building for safety and functionality
• Both HVAC repairs — Improving comfort and energy efficiency
• Both exterior repairs — Enhancing curb appeal and safety
• Both landscaping — Improving curb appeal and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
structural repairs · Severe structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
ceiling repairs · Exposed structural elements	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC repairs · Debris and structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior repairs · Exposed brick and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both structural repairs — Stabilizing the building for safety and functionality ↑
• Both HVAC repairs — Improving comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both exterior repairs — Enhancing curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both landscaping — Improving curb appeal and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,608
• Household income: $38,323
• Rent vs Own: 60.0% rent · 40.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1071.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 447.4034
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-25.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $224,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $225,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-13 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $249,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-19 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-10 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $269,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $289,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $300,000 Dayton MLS