9030 N 48th Pl · Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$4,250,000

6 bd · 8.0 ba · 5,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1994 1.04 ac lot $842/sqft · 23% above area Est $5767k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

~PRIME LOCATION, MOUNTAIN VIEWS, GUEST HOUSE, & $1.5M IN RENOVATIONS!~ A rare, large-scale Paradise Valley estate featuring architectural volume, an on-property guest house, and infrastructure-level upgrades, offered below $525 per square foot in one of the area's most central and desirable locations. Dramatic 20-foot ceilings anchor the primary living spaces, delivering volume and natural light that distinguish the home within the Paradise Valley market. The property has been meticulously enhanced with over $1,500,000 in upgrades, including fully remodeled kitchens with Sub-Zero and Wolf appliances, extensive secondary bathroom renovations, premium custom cabinetry, and updated flooring featuring travertine, new carpet, and refinished hardwoods, creating continuity and flow throughout the interior. A full basement, an uncommon feature in Paradise Valley, provides substantial flexibility for recreation, fitness, storage, or future customization. An on-property guest house adds meaningful space for extended stays, private accommodations, or workspace. Garage capacity is equally notable, offering a 5-car garage, including a newly added, air-conditioned 2-car garage with high ceilings, suitable for vehicle storage, specialty use, or hobby space. Outdoor living has been comprehensively reworked for year-round use, highlighted by PebbleTec pool resurfacing, new pool equipment, a custom outdoor kitchen, awnings, and a complete landscaping overhaul with updated irrigation, lighting, and hardscape elements. Additional improvements include two NEW HVAC systems, full exterior stucco and paint, window replacements and tinting, recessed lighting upgrades, and basement system enhancements. Positioned within highly regarded Paradise Valley school zones and located minutes from Scottsdale, the Biltmore corridor, luxury resorts, championship golf, dining, and shopping, this estate presents a compelling combination of location, scale, functionality, and long-term value in one of Arizona's most established luxury markets.

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• 5 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/8.0-bath single-family listed at $4.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26k ($-307k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $550k (87.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (88.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $481k (88.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#123 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $454k of equity ($29k loan paydown + $425k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$730k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.74M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.23M; list at $4.25M implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $480,985 (88.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.11% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.79%
• DSCR: -0.15
• GRM: 73.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $5,766,640
• List price: $4,250,000
• Delta: -26.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4702 E Sanna St	0.10mi	5/3.5 (-1)	5,661 (+12%)	9mo	$2,675,000	$473	48
4517 E Horseshoe Rd	0.43mi	7/5.0 (+1)	4,596 (-9%)	3mo	$2,350,000	$511	45
4840 E Caida Del Sol Dr	0.52mi	6/5.5	5,598 (+11%)	17mo	$3,200,000	$572	33
9501 N 52nd St	0.53mi	6/5.0	4,389 (-13%)	13mo	$2,650,000	$604	31
4441 E Mockingbird Ln	0.73mi	5/5.5 (-1)	5,301 (+5%)	20mo	$2,995,000	$565	26
4631 E Cochise Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (-1)	4,514 (-10%)	7mo	$2,030,000	$450	25
9900 N 52nd St	0.65mi	5/4.5 (-1)	5,684 (+13%)	10mo	$4,400,000	$774	21
4829 E Beryl Ave	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	5,749 (+14%)	12mo	$2,362,500	$411	17
4426 E Turquoise Ave	0.63mi	5/4.5 (-1)	4,519 (-10%)	21mo	$2,300,000	$509	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $711,523
• Equity at exit: $3,828,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $3,439,179
• Equity at exit: $8,256,815

Cash invested: $1,190,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 73.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,312 /mo · $63,750/yr
• Insurance: −$1,771
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $-25,571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $37,178

Max offer price $549,835

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22,634	-5% $-24,102	+0% $-25,571	+5% $-27,040	+10% $-28,508
Rent	-10% $-25,951	-5% $-25,761	+0% $-25,571	+5% $-25,381	+10% $-25,191
Rate	-1.0pp $-23,431	-0.5pp $-24,490	base $-25,571	+0.5pp $-26,672	+1.0pp $-27,793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,062,500
• Closing costs: $127,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8531 N 49th St Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	4.5	6832	$60,000	$8.78	25d	1	0.57mi
9071 N 53rd Pl Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	6576	$21,900	$3.33	18d	1	0.67mi
5353 E Sanna St Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	5.5	6661	$22,495	$3.38	44d	1	0.70mi
11002 N 52nd St Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	6.0	5365	$14,995	$2.79	25d	1	1.22mi
10019 N 57th St Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	9.0	6623	$60,000	$9.06	25d	1	1.23mi
5136 E Roadrunner Rd Paradise Valley, AZ	5.0	6.0	5301	$12,000	$2.26	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $4,250,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,250,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,250,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,250,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,250,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-03-18
    price $4,250,000 2045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2045 chars)

    ~PRIME LOCATION, MOUNTAIN VIEWS, GUEST HOUSE, & $1.5M IN RENOVATIONS!~ A rare, large-scale Paradise Valley estate featuring architectural volume, an on-property guest house, and infrastructure-level upgrades, offered below $525 per square foot in one of the area's most central and desirable locations. Dramatic 20-foot ceilings anchor the primary living spaces, delivering volume and natural light that distinguish the home within the Paradise Valley market. The property has been meticulously enhanced with over $1,500,000 in upgrades, including fully remodeled kitchens with Sub-Zero and Wolf appliances, extensive secondary bathroom renovations, premium custom cabinetry, and updated flooring featuring travertine, new carpet, and refinished hardwoods, creating continuity and flow throughout the interior. A full basement, an uncommon feature in Paradise Valley, provides substantial flexibility for recreation, fitness, storage, or future customization. An on-property guest house adds meaningful space for extended stays, private accommodations, or workspace. Garage capacity is equally notable, offering a 5-car garage, including a newly added, air-conditioned 2-car garage with high ceilings, suitable for vehicle storage, specialty use, or hobby space. Outdoor living has been comprehensively reworked for year-round use, highlighted by PebbleTec pool resurfacing, new pool equipment, a custom outdoor kitchen, awnings, and a complete landscaping overhaul with updated irrigation, lighting, and hardscape elements. Additional improvements include two NEW HVAC systems, full exterior stucco and paint, window replacements and tinting, recessed lighting upgrades, and basement system enhancements. Positioned within highly regarded Paradise Valley school zones and located minutes from Scottsdale, the Biltmore corridor, luxury resorts, championship golf, dining, and shopping, this estate presents a compelling combination of location, scale, functionality, and long-term value in one of Arizona's most established luxury markets.

15. 2026-01-15
    listed $4,395,000 Active 2045-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2045 chars)

    ~PRIME LOCATION, MOUNTAIN VIEWS, GUEST HOUSE, & $1.5M IN RENOVATIONS!~ A rare, large-scale Paradise Valley estate featuring architectural volume, an on-property guest house, and infrastructure-level upgrades, offered below $525 per square foot in one of the area's most central and desirable locations. Dramatic 20-foot ceilings anchor the primary living spaces, delivering volume and natural light that distinguish the home within the Paradise Valley market. The property has been meticulously enhanced with over $1,500,000 in upgrades, including fully remodeled kitchens with Sub-Zero and Wolf appliances, extensive secondary bathroom renovations, premium custom cabinetry, and updated flooring featuring travertine, new carpet, and refinished hardwoods, creating continuity and flow throughout the interior. A full basement, an uncommon feature in Paradise Valley, provides substantial flexibility for recreation, fitness, storage, or future customization. An on-property guest house adds meaningful space for extended stays, private accommodations, or workspace. Garage capacity is equally notable, offering a 5-car garage, including a newly added, air-conditioned 2-car garage with high ceilings, suitable for vehicle storage, specialty use, or hobby space. Outdoor living has been comprehensively reworked for year-round use, highlighted by PebbleTec pool resurfacing, new pool equipment, a custom outdoor kitchen, awnings, and a complete landscaping overhaul with updated irrigation, lighting, and hardscape elements. Additional improvements include two NEW HVAC systems, full exterior stucco and paint, window replacements and tinting, recessed lighting upgrades, and basement system enhancements. Positioned within highly regarded Paradise Valley school zones and located minutes from Scottsdale, the Biltmore corridor, luxury resorts, championship golf, dining, and shopping, this estate presents a compelling combination of location, scale, functionality, and long-term value in one of Arizona's most established luxury markets.

16. 2026-01-13
    historical
17. 2025-12-15
    listed $4,450,000 Active
18. 2025-06-16
    historical
19. 2025-01-15
    price $4,500,000
20. 2025-01-15
    status Active
21. 2024-12-10
    historical
22. 2024-10-08
    price $4,799,000
23. 2024-06-23
    listed $4,999,000 Active
24. 2021-02-11
    historical
25. 2021-01-10
    price $2,145,000
26. 2020-12-29
    price $2,199,000
27. 2020-12-02
    listed $2,295,000 Active
28. 2020-11-16
    historical
29. 2020-10-03
    status Active
30. 2020-10-02
    historical
31. 2020-09-03
    price $2,199,999
32. 2020-06-27
    price $2,400,000
33. 2019-08-02
    listed $2,496,240 Active
34. 2018-12-18
    soldstatus $1,225,000 Closed
35. 2018-12-18
    soldstatus $1,225,000
36. 2018-11-14
    price $1,300,000
37. 2018-11-14
    status Pending
38. 2018-11-14
    status Active
39. 2018-11-12
    status Pending
40. 2018-11-09
    soldstatus $1,225,000 Closed
41. 2018-09-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
42. 2018-08-17
    listed $1,400,000 Active
43. 2018-08-13
    historical
44. 2018-08-03
    price $1,700,000
45. 2018-07-20
    price $1,775,000
46. 2018-07-17
    price $1,800,000
47. 2018-07-06
    listed $1,775,000 Active
48. 2000-05-05
    soldstatus $1,125,000
49. 2000-05-05
    soldstatus $1,125,000
50. 2000-05-03
    soldstatus $1,125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$238,066
• − Property taxes: −$63,750
• − Insurance: −$21,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,617
• − Management: −$4,617
• − Depreciation: −$123,636
• Taxable loss: −$398,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-211,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Paradise Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #15675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise Valley, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 17,904
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4421.3% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $4,250,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $4,395,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $4,450,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $4,500,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $4,799,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Listed $4,999,000 ARMLS
• 2021-02-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-01-10 Price Changed $2,145,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-29 Price Changed $2,199,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-02 Listed $2,295,000 ARMLS
• 2020-11-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-10-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-10-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Price Changed $2,199,999 ARMLS
• 2020-06-27 Price Changed $2,400,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-02 Listed $2,496,240 ARMLS
• 2018-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,225,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-18 Sold (MLS) $1,225,000 ARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Price Changed $1,300,000 ARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-11-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-11-09 Sold (MLS) $1,225,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Listed $1,400,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Price Changed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-20 Price Changed $1,775,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-17 Price Changed $1,800,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-06 Listed $1,775,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-05 Sold (MLS) $1,125,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-05 Sold (MLS) $1,125,000 ARMLS
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,125,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-01-20 Listed $1,249,000 ARMLS
• 2000-01-20 Listed $1,249,000 ARMLS
• 1999-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1983-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,971 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.