651 SW 11th St Unit 15W · Miami, FL 33129

$260,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 570 sqft · Condo public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1949 $222/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable condo in the highly desired Roads/Brickell area! This bright 1-bedroom unit features updated flooring, open layout, and natural light throughout. Located in a boutique 1950s CBS-constructed building just minutes from Brickell, Downtown, Key Biscayne, and major highways. Low monthly fees, quiet residential neighborhood, and plenty of street parking available. Perfect for investors, students, or anyone seeking a prime Miami location at an unbeatable price.

Key facts

• Boutique building
• Natural light
• Open layout

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BOUTIQUE BUILDING
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD
• PLENTY OF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $222

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Complex fenced
• Home design: Attached property; 2-story building; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Fenced; Complex is fenced

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Primary bedroom on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $260k implies a 1476% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.79%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.16% appreciation · 2.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $12,103
• Equity at exit: $60,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $66,506
• Equity at exit: $62,210

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33129

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,199/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$222
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,674

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $222 · $2,664/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $260,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $260,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2025-11-17
   listed $260,000 Active
4. 1973-01-01
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,199
• − Insurance: −$3,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,251
• − Management: −$3,251
• − HOA: −$2,664
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable income: $3,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$726
• After-tax cash flow: $6,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #2724

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 827,308
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,702
• Household income: $113,367
• Rent vs Own: 53.2% rent · 46.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 48% White 19% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 25% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Estonian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 58% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 73% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Current HPI: 366.9874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.23%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1475.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $260,000 MARMLS
• 1973-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,199 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.