14B Cambridge Cir · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Condo public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1973 $201/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est. $414/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bed 2-bath condo in the highly sought after Leisure Village West. This spotless move-in-ready home features a long list of recent upgrades, including a brand-new washer & dryer, hot water heater, newer stainless steel appliances, & beautiful wood laminate flooring. Enjoy a bright modern interior with freshly painted walls, updated doors, new hinges & hardware, & elegant crown molding. The spacious layout offers comfortable living & dining areas, perfect for both relaxing & entertaining. A nice sunroom ideal for morning coffee, reading, or simply soaking in natural light year round. Don't miss the opportunity to own this thoughtfully upgraded home in a vibrant, amenity-rich community offering comfort & convenience. Schedule an appointment today!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($412/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $249k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,116
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,895
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,099
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,188/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$414
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,645

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $105	+0% $34	+5% $-36	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-72	+0% $34	+5% $141	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $98	base $34	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	0.29mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	0.84mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	0.86mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	45d	1	0.96mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	23d	1	1.09mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	45d	1	1.20mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	1.24mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.40mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.44mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $414 · $4,968/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $249,000 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-05-05
   price $249,000 823-char remark

   Show marketing remark (823 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bed 2-bath condo in the highly sought after Leisure Village West. This spotless move-in-ready home features a long list of recent upgrades, including a brand-new washer & dryer, hot water heater, newer stainless steel appliances, & beautiful wood laminate flooring. Enjoy a bright modern interior with freshly painted walls, updated doors, new hinges & hardware, & elegant crown molding. The spacious layout offers comfortable living & dining areas, perfect for both relaxing & entertaining. A nice sunroom ideal for morning coffee, reading, or simply soaking in natural light year round. Don't miss the opportunity to own this thoughtfully upgraded home in a vibrant, amenity-rich community offering comfort & convenience. Schedule an appointment today!

9. 2026-04-10
   listed $262,000 Active 823-char remark

   Show marketing remark (823 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bed 2-bath condo in the highly sought after Leisure Village West. This spotless move-in-ready home features a long list of recent upgrades, including a brand-new washer & dryer, hot water heater, newer stainless steel appliances, & beautiful wood laminate flooring. Enjoy a bright modern interior with freshly painted walls, updated doors, new hinges & hardware, & elegant crown molding. The spacious layout offers comfortable living & dining areas, perfect for both relaxing & entertaining. A nice sunroom ideal for morning coffee, reading, or simply soaking in natural light year round. Don't miss the opportunity to own this thoughtfully upgraded home in a vibrant, amenity-rich community offering comfort & convenience. Schedule an appointment today!

10. 2025-01-17
    historical $2,300
11. 2024-12-28
    listed $2,300
12. 2024-10-31
    historical $2,300
13. 2024-08-15
    price $2,300
14. 2024-06-06
    listed $2,500
15. 2016-01-28
    soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,188 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,694 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$126/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,188
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,580
• − Management: −$2,580
• − HOA: −$4,968
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$839
• After-tax cash flow: $1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+159.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $249,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $262,000 MOMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $2,300 MOMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $2,300 MOMLS
• 2024-10-31 Rental Removed $2,300 MOMLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $2,300 MOMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed for Rent $2,500 MOMLS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,188 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.