5306 Atascocita West Trl · Atascocita, TX 77346

$209,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1977 6,499 sqft lot $126/sqft · 9% below area Est $229k · 9% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bedrooms, 2 baths home with backyard porch. Located in a well established neighborhood. The property features a functional floor plan and kitchen ready for your personal touch. Home needs some TLC presenting an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and major highways.

Key facts

• Backyard porch
• 6,499 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BACKYARD PORCH
• WELL ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,003
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -8.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5219 Forest Timbers Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,669 (+1%)	1mo	$239,000	$143	92
19302 Flaxwood Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,658 (-0%)	2mo	$225,000	$136	86
5619 Fawn Trail Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (+0%)	1mo	$214,990	$129	66
5534 Deer Timbers Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	64
5102 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-6%)	6mo	$202,000	$129	63
5415 Fawn Trail Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$119	58
19914 Big Timber Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-3%)	5mo	$198,000	$123	57
20035 Dawn Mist Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-8%)	0mo	$177,000	$115	57
5514 Fawn Trail Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,863 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$134	57
20018 Big Timber Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+6%)	3mo	$219,800	$125	50
20022 River Brook Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,904 (+15%)	4mo	$314,995	$165	44
20207 Misty Pines Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+15%)	2mo	$199,900	$105	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,644
• Equity at exit: $50,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,345
• Equity at exit: $53,852

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,210/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,084

Max offer price $204,398

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	22d	1	0.33mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	43d	1	0.44mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	43d	1	0.69mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	0.81mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	0.86mi
18551 Timber Forest Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,609	$1.49	2d	7	0.97mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	1.23mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	1.28mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	5d	1	1.29mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	1.44mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-02-01
    price $209,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Charming 4 bedrooms, 2 baths home with backyard porch. Located in a well established neighborhood. The property features a functional floor plan and kitchen ready for your personal touch. Home needs some TLC presenting an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and major highways.

16. 2026-01-07
    price $225,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Charming 4 bedrooms, 2 baths home with backyard porch. Located in a well established neighborhood. The property features a functional floor plan and kitchen ready for your personal touch. Home needs some TLC presenting an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and major highways.

17. 2025-11-06
    listed $235,000 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Charming 4 bedrooms, 2 baths home with backyard porch. Located in a well established neighborhood. The property features a functional floor plan and kitchen ready for your personal touch. Home needs some TLC presenting an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and major highways.

18. 2019-05-15
    soldstatus
19. 2001-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$5,210
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$3,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,210 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.