10281 S Summit Peak Pl · Summit, AZ 85756

$167,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $232k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice area in Summit. Acre lot with a mobile home and large addition. Newer septic system. Longtime renters are leaving (paid 1750 per month) also has a camper that rented for 500. Has potential to rent for 2,250 and with a sale price of 167,500 this is a great deal.

Key facts

• Built 2001
• Listed 37 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $167,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$231,600) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#254 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $168k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10430 S Epperson Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	13mo	$255,000	$190	46
9876 S Cactus Apple Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$262,000	$195	37
9805 S Desert Brush Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$260,000	$193	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,047
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,804
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,500 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $167,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,500 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,500 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,500 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,500 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $167,500 Active 269-char remark
17. 2026-01-14
    historical
18. 2025-11-15
    status Active
19. 2025-11-10
    historical
20. 2025-11-06
    price $190,000
21. 2025-09-11
    listed $197,500 Active
22. 2024-09-16
    soldstatus $110,000
23. 2024-08-10
    historical Active Contingent
24. 2024-08-09
    historical
25. 2024-08-05
    price $115,000
26. 2024-08-05
    status Active
27. 2024-08-01
    historical Active Contingent
28. 2024-07-29
    price $135,000
29. 2024-07-18
    price $150,000
30. 2024-07-10
    price $159,999
31. 2024-06-06
    listed $165,000 Active
32. 2012-02-16
    soldstatus $47,000
33. 2001-06-06
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 156.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable income: $1,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$378
• After-tax cash flow: $3,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Summit

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #23040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Summit, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+392.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $167,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-15 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-11 Listed $197,500 MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $115,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-05 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-01 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed $159,999 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-06 Listed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.