406 W Head St · Jefferson, IA 50129

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1975 0.53 ac lot $82/sqft · 19% below area Est $136k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors welcome. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on an oversized lot and features a detached four-car garage. Opportunity to renovate and rent for immediate income or update and resell. Property offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking for a value-add project.

Key facts

• Strong potential
• Value-add project
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• DETACHED FOUR-CAR GARAGE
• STRONG POTENTIAL
• VALUE-ADD PROJECT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#115 in IA, #2,186 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County Community School District (town): math 58% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #223 of 289 in IA (top 77%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,743
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -18.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1006 N Pinet	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,400 (+4%)	17mo	$309,000	$221	65
506 N Vine St	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,359 (+1%)	7mo	$297,500	$219	65
504 N Vine St	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,363 (+1%)	4mo	$287,000	$211	62
707 W State St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,326 (-1%)	1mo	$183,000	$138	59
205 W Adams St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,274 (-5%)	4mo	$54,000	$42	58
603 W State St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,290 (-4%)	7mo	$156,000	$121	56
206 E Clark St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+9%)	4mo	$145,000	$99	54
607 W State St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,429 (+6%)	6mo	$92,000	$64	51
305 N Maple St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-5%)	17mo	$148,500	$116	48
910 W Adams St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-15%)	3mo	$200,000	$175	42
704 W Lincoln Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,181 (-12%)	1mo	$175,000	$148	41
206 N Elm St	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (+11%)	15mo	$153,000	$103	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-10,062
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,348
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50129

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,102/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $152	+0% $121	+5% $90	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $75	+0% $121	+5% $167	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $149	base $121	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 159 DOM
17. 2025-12-22
    listed $110,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Investors welcome. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on an oversized lot and features a detached four-car garage. Opportunity to renovate and rent for immediate income or update and resell. Property offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking for a value-add project.

18. 2025-12-22
    listed $110,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Investors welcome. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on an oversized lot and features a detached four-car garage. Opportunity to renovate and rent for immediate income or update and resell. Property offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking for a value-add project.

19. 2019-10-25
    historical
20. 2019-05-07
    listed $89,900
21. 2016-04-11
    listed $89,900
22. 2016-04-06
    historical
23. 2015-10-06
    listed $98,500
24. 2015-10-06
    listed $98,500
25. 2015-10-06
    listed $98,500
26. 2011-10-10
    historical
27. 2011-08-10
    listed $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,102 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,102 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,102
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915210
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,051
• Composite: 52.74/100
• National rank: #1548
• State rank: #223 of 289 in IA

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #2186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson, IA
• City population: 5,116
• Population (ZIP): 5,116

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,361 people
• By 2030: 8,090 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 7,607 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 7,186 · -14.1%
• By 2075: 6,528 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 5,799 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.5pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+23.8 2012: R+0.1 2008: D+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.16%
• Current HPI: 240.0907
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $110,000 DMMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $110,000 IAR
• 2019-10-25 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2019-05-07 Listed $89,900 DMMLS
• 2016-04-11 Listed $89,900 CIBOR
• 2016-04-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-06 Listed $98,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-06 Listed $98,500 CIBOR
• 2015-10-06 Listed $98,500 IAR
• 2011-10-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-10 Listed $56,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,102 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.