419 W Main St · Richmond, MO 64085

$199,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 318 Days on market

Built 1912 8,886 sqft lot $100/sqft · 18% below area Est $243k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS HOME is ready for a big family! 5 bedroom 3 bath. Large kitchen. Laundry/mud room. Upststairs landing provides additional space for office area.

Key facts

• Laundry mud room
• Large kitchen
• Upstairs landing

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY MUD ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LANDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($748/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#198 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Richmond R-XVI (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #209 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $589 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,756 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,265
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -18.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 N College St	0.34mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,972 (-1%)	6mo	$195,000	$99	71
509 S Shaw St	0.51mi	5/2.0	1,920 (-3%)	6mo	$90,000	$47	65
108 N Mccart St	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,100 (+6%)	4mo	$269,900	$129	57
418 N College St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-3%)	19mo	$149,900	$78	56
506 Grandview St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+13%)	6mo	$249,900	$111	47
212 Sanderson Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,716 (-14%)	4mo	$219,000	$128	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $835
• Equity at exit: $60,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,731
• Equity at exit: $75,424

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64085

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $119	+0% $62	+5% $6	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $0	+0% $62	+5% $124	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $113	base $62	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 298 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $199,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    SPACIOUS HOME is ready for a big family! 5 bedroom 3 bath. Large kitchen. Laundry/mud room. Upststairs landing provides additional space for office area.

17. 2026-04-27
    price $209,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    SPACIOUS HOME is ready for a big family! 5 bedroom 3 bath. Large kitchen. Laundry/mud room. Upststairs landing provides additional space for office area.

18. 2025-09-29
    price $219,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    SPACIOUS HOME is ready for a big family! 5 bedroom 3 bath. Large kitchen. Laundry/mud room. Upststairs landing provides additional space for office area.

19. 2025-08-06
    listed $225,000 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    SPACIOUS HOME is ready for a big family! 5 bedroom 3 bath. Large kitchen. Laundry/mud room. Upststairs landing provides additional space for office area.

20. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus Closed 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Located near the heart of Richmond! Fixer upper with plenty of square footage for everyone. Home features large kitchen/dining space, main level master, laundry, and office/bedroom. Home is ran for central A/C but unit does not work.

21. 2022-09-01
    status Pending 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Located near the heart of Richmond! Fixer upper with plenty of square footage for everyone. Home features large kitchen/dining space, main level master, laundry, and office/bedroom. Home is ran for central A/C but unit does not work.

22. 2022-08-15
    listed $60,000 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Located near the heart of Richmond! Fixer upper with plenty of square footage for everyone. Home features large kitchen/dining space, main level master, laundry, and office/bedroom. Home is ran for central A/C but unit does not work.

23. 2012-08-06
    soldstatus
24. 2012-05-24
    listed $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,336/yr (+$111/mo · 224.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$654
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond R-XVI
• NCES district ID: 2926480
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,070
• Composite: 30.17/100
• National rank: #6321
• State rank: #209 of 324 in MO

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #10160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,113

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Current HPI: 374.3671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+712.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $199,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $209,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $219,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Listed $225,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Listed $60,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-06 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-24 Listed $24,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.