160 Vz County Road 4130 · Canton, TX 75103

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1980 8,712 sqft lot $123/sqft · 35% below area Est $235k · 35% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home on a Quiet Dead-End Road! Nestled at the end of a peaceful dead-end street with only a few neighboring homes, this charming property offers privacy and a calm, country-like setting. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of space for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from town, this home provides the perfect blend of small-town convenience and the relaxing feel of country life. Come make this home your own and enjoy the comfort and potential it offers!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Quiet dead-end road
• Country-like setting

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COUNTRY-LIKE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#239 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Canton ISD (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.71%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,495
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -35.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 Pecan St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+13%)	4mo	$160,000	$114	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,539
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,349
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75103

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,926/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Beard St Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,675	$1.46	7d	1	1.09mi
1107 Tower St Canton, TX	3.0	1.5	1210	$1,525	$1.26	19d	1	1.26mi
1361 Shady Ln Canton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,600	$1.27	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $153,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    price $153,000 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Cozy 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home on a Quiet Dead-End Road! Nestled at the end of a peaceful dead-end street with only a few neighboring homes, this charming property offers privacy and a calm, country-like setting. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of space for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from town, this home provides the perfect blend of small-town convenience and the relaxing feel of country life. Come make this home your own and enjoy the comfort and potential it offers!

16. 2026-01-26
    listed $155,000 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Cozy 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home on a Quiet Dead-End Road! Nestled at the end of a peaceful dead-end street with only a few neighboring homes, this charming property offers privacy and a calm, country-like setting. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of space for outdoor living, entertaining, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from town, this home provides the perfect blend of small-town convenience and the relaxing feel of country life. Come make this home your own and enjoy the comfort and potential it offers!

17. 2025-04-21
    soldstatus
18. 2002-05-09
    soldstatus
19. 2001-10-02
    soldstatus
20. 1990-04-23
    soldstatus
21. 1987-03-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,926 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,800 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$874/yr (+$73/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$1,926
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812750
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,385
• Composite: 44.08/100
• National rank: #2877
• State rank: #151 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #5787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,222

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.07%
• Current HPI: 227.6156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $153,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,926 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.